UK growth rebounded in Q2, but outlook is clouded
Today sees the release of July data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to marked increases in both output and new orders amid an unusually long spell of warm weather. That said, employment increased only slightly and business confidence eased. The rate of input cost inflation remained sharp, leading output prices to rise at a pace only slightly weaker than June’s ten-year high.
The MPC voted unanimously to raise interest rates and the Fed looks like it is warming up for more of the same
An upbeat speech from Bank of England governor Mark Carney shortens the odds of an August rate hike
Some crumbs of comfort for the UK economy, but the outlook remains uncertain
Pressure eases on public finances, but not enough to finance a big Birthday gift without recourse to higher taxes.
Big, expensive, marred by controversy and inherently political. No, not the World Cup. QE. And the final whistle for this extraordinary period for monetary policy is approaching. At least for this round. And there’s always the chance of extra time.
A reversal of fortune in the service sector should hail a return to business as usual for the UK economy.
This month marks two years since the Brexit vote, and in the intervening period, we have become fixated with the relationship between the UK and the EU. However, in many respects what is going on within the EU itself is potentially even more significant, and the next two years could be defining for the bloc.
Rising oil prices means that, like the eponymous shark Jaws, inflation keeps coming back. Manufacturers report tighter margins and consumers face a summer of squeezed budgets. Just when you thought it was over eh!