Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – If at first you don’t succeed

Last week’s series of votes saw the Withdrawal Agreement defeated for a second time, a no deal exit voted down and an instruction to seek a delay to the Article 50 deadline of 29th March passed. The length of the delay is still unclear. If the Withdrawal Agreement passes this week it could be for a couple of months, if not a much longer deadline is possible.
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Weekly Brief – Crunch time 2.0

UK PM Theresa May’s meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement takes place on Tuesday and so far looks set for another defeat. If the deal is rejected, again, the votes that follow will offer Parliament the chance to go for a no-deal Brexit (almost certain to be rejected) or request an extension of Article 50 (most likely). Such pivotal events are likely to overshadow the Chancellor’s update on the Government’s finances in the Spring Statement.

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Weekly Brief – Shifting sands

The landscape for UK politics is changing. News that seven Labour MPs and four Conservative MPs have defected to form a new Independent Group highlights the current fragmented state of UK politics. PM May delayed the “meaningful” vote on Brexit to March 12th, adding to the uncertain picture for the UK economy, meanwhile the labour market powers ahead.

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Weekly Brief – Gloomy

Following a path laid by the US Federal Reserve, who recently adopted a more neutral position towards monetary policy, the Bank of England’s February Inflation report clearly signalled no urgency to raise rates. The 2019 growth forecast was cut sharply. The main culprits were mounting concerns about Brexit plus the wider global outlook.

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Weekly Brief – Unparalleled times

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Prime Minister Theresa May is due to unveil Brexit plan B to Parliament today but it is unlikely to differ much from her first version. Following a crushing defeat on the Withdrawal Agreement and having narrowly survived a no-confidence vote, Mrs May offered an olive branch of cross party talks but was rebuffed by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Talk of an extension of Article 50 is on the rise but an exit from EU without a deal is still possible.
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Weekly Brief – May’s Brexit deal hangs by a thread

Following the recent Grieve amendment, the chances of Parliament passing PM Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow look very slim. A rejection would force Mrs May to unveil a Plan B next Monday. An array of outcomes is possible with an increasing chance of Article 50 being extended.

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