Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Getting better all the time

London_Eye_sunset_study_-_P1040370.jpgWhether it’s booming car sales or rising job satisfaction the data says the UK is in a good place. Or maybe that’s the after effects of a sunny weekend…

Service charge. Nine months on from the EU referendum result, the UK’s service sector hasn’t lost its mojo. According to the March PMI the sector notched up its fastest rate of growth for the year with an overall score of 55, up from February’s 53.3. Firms remain very optimistic for the future but inflationary pressures remain a concern. Input cost inflation eased last month relative to February’s near 8-1/2 year peak but still remain high. Passing these costs on to customers through higher charges remains a priority, sharpening the focus on this week’s inflation data. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Happy birthday to EU and goodbye

Sterling is down 12% since the referendum and some effects of its decline are becoming apparent.

Pound.jpgPipeline pressures. Sterling’s weakness has fuelled import cost inflation. Manufacturers’ raw material costs rose by 19% y/y in February and firms have been passing some of these costs on to customers. Back in June factory gate prices were falling on an annual basis. Subsequently, output price growth has accelerated in every single month. Last month they were up 3.7% y/y the largest increase since December 2011. Price rises were evident across all product categories from food to fuel. Consumers have been warned. Further price rises are coming. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Hard earned

crowd-71255_1280We’re breaking records for the number of people in work, yet more productive jobs are what we really need.

Record breakers. 2016 ended with
the UK’s highest share of people working since we started counting it in the 1970s. At 74.6% the working age employment rate hit a new record and the number in work reached 30.6 million. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Aim high

aim-high-skyscraperPresident Trump has promised to unveil a spectacular reform of the US tax system in the next few weeks to boost the economy. Meanwhile the labour market has been producing spectacular results itself.

Ambitious. The number of Americans in work rose by 227,000 in January and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.8%. During President Obama’s second term employment increased by 12 million (8%), impressive alongside the UK’s still-respectable 3%. President Trump aims to add 25 million jobs over a decade. That’s very ambitious indeed but there are historical precedents: both the Reagan and Clinton administrations saw rates of job growth that, if repeated, would see the target being met. But they both arrived at the White House towards the end of recessions, Trump’s task is harder.

Continue reading