Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Feeling the chill

The going was expected to get tough. Whether it is the newly released transactions data or the familiar PMI prints, indications are the UK economy’s Covid recovery has gone into reverse. But we could recover “at a rate of knots” from the second quarter, as per the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, with the roll out of the vaccine. Fingers crossed!

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Patience

It’s going to be some more time before we can wake the UK economy from its economic slumber. Last week, virus-led restrictions tightened in Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland. And there are ominous signs of further weakening activity in January. That said, the November GDP print has strengthened hopes of lesser-than-expected damage in Q1 2021.

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – ‘Exhausted’ but ‘hopeful’

This week’s title draws on the most popular words being used to describe 2020 and 2021 according to a recent survey. Well barring the expletives! The fight against the virus has left the world worn out but this has not prevented households and businesses from hoping for a better future, even when new challenges continue to arise. So it’s a hopeful note that we end our year on.

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Light at the end of the tunnel

It’s less than the first but there’s no masking the impact the second lockdown had on the UK economy. It sent more workers back to furlough, car sales plunging, job postings stalling and footfall dipping. But an earlier than expected arrival of a vaccine could help galvanise the recovery not too far into the New Year, well hopefully!  

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Getting Frosty

PMI survey readings for November unsurprisingly indicated a setback in the recovery. The silver lining is that it’s a lot less compared to the first lockdown. It’s the challenge beyond implied by a stricter tiering system that’s the new concern. A difficult winter no doubt. The recovery will only get down to business when a vaccine is rolled out.  

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Testing times

The incoming data for October shows what was widely expected, a slowdown in momentum. Mobility indicators have retreated as much of the world has reverted to some combination of reimposed restrictions. At least there are hopeful signs across countries of the latest wave having peaked or indeed being in retreat, but it is still early days.

Continue reading