Comment on today’s SMMT Northern Ireland New Car Sales figures for September 2020.
Northern Ireland’s new car sales recovery appears to have run out of gas at the end of the third quarter. Local showrooms witnessed a 6% y/y rise in new vehicle sales in Q3 which represented the first quarterly rise since Q2 2019. However, this was driven by sales outperformance in July (+ 17% y/y) and August (+6.6% y/y). Dealers sold 5,010 new cars in September, 2.5% fewer than the same month a year ago. Indeed, last month’s sales represented the weakest September since the SMMT series began. This suggests that the pent-up demand evident within the July and August figures may have been and gone. A few months of post-lockdown outperformance had been expected, but this upswing now seems to be even shorter and more subdued than originally anticipated.
Local showrooms enjoyed their second lockdown-free month with new car sales picking-up for the second month in a row. Dealers sold 3,618 new cars in August which marked a rise of almost 7% y/y. While last month’s figures was up on last year, they were below the August sales volumes in the previous six years. Clearly there remains an element of pent-up demand in the latest figures which follow the best July in 13 years. Back in July new car sales increased by 17% y/y. Following the lockdown from late-March to early June a few months of outperformance were expected. It will take another few months of figures to get a better handle on the true underlying picture.
With the worst quarter on record for new car sales behind them, local dealerships finally enjoyed their first lockdown-free month in July. Following a 76% y/y decline in Q2, showrooms reported 4,398 new car sales last month. That represented a 17% increase on the corresponding month a year ago and marked the largest number of sales in five months. More importantly, it marked the best July for new car sales in 13 years according to the SMMT figures.
New car sales are traditionally viewed as a key barometer of consumer confidence. Despite the labour market being the strongest it has ever been, consumer confidence – viewed through the lens of new car sales – remains uninspiring. Last month proved to be the weakest June for dealers in seven years with 5,170 new vehicles rolling out of showrooms. That was six per cent lower than last year. However, the latest figures follow the best May in 11 years and a mediocre April. As a result, the second quarter still posted a respectable 2.7% y/y rise (+369 cars) and the strongest Q2 in three years.
The make-up of carparks has long been a good indicator of trends in the domestic economy, given that cars are the biggest discretionary expenditure item after purchasing a home. But the car market has also become a key barometer of what is happening in the global economy, and trends in the sector now need to be closely watched to understand what’s going on.
New car sales hit a 5-year low in 2018 signalling a bad year for the motor industry, or was it? Once again this headline conceals contrasting fortunes for different brands and models. Whatever the economic weather there are always winners and losers.
According to today’s SMMT new car sales figures, demand for a new set of wheels in Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain continues to wane. UK dealers saw new car sales plunge by one-fifth in September relative to last year. Locally, NI car showrooms saw almost 1,000 fewer vehicles sold last month relative to September 2017. That represents a decline of 15% y/y. Some 5,365 vehicles were sold last month in Northern Ireland, which represents the quietest September in seven years.
One of the trends that we have been seeing in car sales is motorists shunning diesel vehicles for petrol and plug-in versions. But while consumer behaviour is changing in response to the eventual phasing out of diesel cars, we are also seeing overall sales volumes continuing to follow a downward trend. This highlights a lack of consumer confidence which in turn reflects a squeeze on household incomes. In short, new car sales have been in a state of managed decline over the last two years, and this appears to be continuing. Continue reading →
New car sales traditionally provide a useful barometer of consumer confidence. In recent months, however, interpreting the figures requires a degree of caution given the significant volatility, in the car sales. Tax changes, the weather and the timing of Easter have all affected the volume of new cars sold and the annual growth rates over the last 12-15 months. This ‘noise’ can misrepresent the genuine underlying trends.