An unexpected decline in April GDP, driven by sharply weaker manufacturing activity, has increased the risks of UK growth stagnating, or even contracting, in Q2 2019. Still, continued favourable labour market conditions remain a key support for the resilient consumer, lessening the risks of a more pronounced downturn.
Following the recent Grieve amendment, the chances of Parliament passing PM Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow look very slim. A rejection would force Mrs May to unveil a Plan B next Monday. An array of outcomes is possible with an increasing chance of Article 50 being extended.
UK GDP growth picked up in Q3 but this bounce is likely to be fleeting, judging from latest downbeat business surveys.
Latest monthly UK PMI surveys were upbeat, hinting at firmer Q3 GDP. Increasing skill shortages suggest a pick-up in wage growth in coming months, supportive for cash strapped consumers.
Some crumbs of comfort for the UK economy, but the outlook remains uncertain
UK businesses appear in decent shape. Turnover is up as are Corporation Tax receipts. Yet sterling has lost roughly one-tenth of its value since June and that’s raising input costs and squeezing profits. A long summer of falling costs boosting profits is coming to an end. Continue reading
A decent month which saw a rebound in trade and a decent year for industry still leave gaps in both. The trade deficit remains at near-record levels while industrial output is 7% lower than it was a decade ago. The first gap is the more significant. Continue reading
If you’re walking in the dark it’s useful to know where you’re starting from. With Q2 GDP growth confirmed at 0.6%, supported by decent data for June, we can be confident that the UK economy started the summer in decent shape.
The UK economy grew by a sprightly 0.6% in Q2. But with everything viewed through a pre/post-vote prism this counts as old news. Yet not every change will be due to ‘Brexit’, with signs the economy was cooling even in May. Continue reading
Every UK data release is being closely analysed in the post-Brexit world. But it’s still early days. It’ll be a good number of weeks, probably months, before we have a better handle on the impact of the result. Continue reading