The highs and lows of Northern Ireland economic statistics

This is an important week for understanding what has been going on within the Northern Ireland economy. We had four surveys released yesterday by NISRA – two on the labour market and two on private sector output. Within them, there was a variety of highs and lows, some of which are positive and some of which are concerning.  For the labour market, the two key releases were the monthly Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES).  The latter is the most closely watched survey of the number of jobs in the economy. Meanwhile the other two surveys shed light on private sector output in the third quarter. These were the Index of Services and the Index of Production (industrial production / manufacturing output). So what do they tell us about the local economy? Continue reading

Sharp rise in new orders supports further growth of activity

PMI-1Today sees the release of October data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that the private sector remained firmly in growth territory, despite rates of expansion in output and new orders easing from the previous month. Firms continued to take on extra staff at a solid pace. Meanwhile, input costs rose sharply again and the rate of output price inflation quickened. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Over the line?

Manufacturing (2).jpgIt wasn’t blockbuster but UK GDP growth was slightly better than expected last quarter, lending a little support to members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee minded to raise rates this week. But will it be enough to get a rate hike over the line?  We’ll find out lunchtime on Thursday. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – All work and no pay

people-2568530_1920.jpgWith unemployment at a 40-year low, wages should be rising at roughly twice their current pace. That they are not reflects rising supply, a shift to self-employment, less job switching than usual and, above all, stagnant productivity. It can also stump central banks used to the conventional relationship between work and pay. Continue reading

Sharpest rise in activity in 2017 so far

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Today sees the release of August data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The Northern Ireland private sector recorded faster rises in output and new orders during August, supporting further job creation. Sterling weakness played an important role in the local economy, helping firms to secure new export orders but also adding to inflationary pressures. Continue reading

Rate of job creation hits 13 month high

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Today sees the release of May data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to a pick-up in new order growth during May, supporting a further solid increase in output. The rate of job creation also accelerated as firms responded to current workloads and positive expectations around future new work. Meanwhile, both input costs and output prices rose at slower rates than in April. Continue reading