Today sees the release of October data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled that surging price rises acted as a brake on the Northern Ireland private sector, restricting growth of business activity and contributing to a decrease in new orders. Both input costs and output prices rose at new record rates. On a more positive note, companies expanded their staffing levels at a sharp and accelerated pace.
Continue readingManufacturing
Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Wind Down
Covid-19 cases are on the rise again, especially in Scotland, where schools re-started three weeks ago. More data confirming a degree of caution set in amongst consumers mid-summer – UK net consumer credit growth dropped to zero in July and the savings rate is still unusually high. Meanwhile labour shortages appear to be intensifying.
Business activity shows signs of stabilisation in March
Today sees the release of March data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to output and new orders nearing stabilisation, while employment increased amid growing confidence for the year-ahead outlook. That said, input costs and output prices surged at record rates, while there were widespread reports of supply delays.
Continue readingWhat goes down must go up!
2020 has been the year of the unprecedented rate of decline. New car sales, property transactions, housebuilding, manufacturing output, services activity or tourist numbers have all plunged on a scale that we have never seen before. Lockdown restrictions have been responsible for this ‘switching off’ of economic activity and this was most pronounced in the second quarter. When swathes of the economy are shutdown, the inevitable consequence of the subsequent lifting of restrictions means output / activity can go only one way – UP!
Continue readingNI private sector remains in deep downturn
Today sees the release of May data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled further steep declines in business activity and new orders in the Northern Ireland private sector as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis continued.
Continue readingCOVID-19 leads to record fall in business activity
Today sees the release of March data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused a steep contraction in the Northern Ireland private sector, with both output and new orders falling at the sharpest rates since the survey began in August 2002. Companies reduced staffing levels substantially, while business confidence slumped.
Continue readingSlower fall in activity amid stabilisation in new orders
Today sees the release of January data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – saw the Northern Ireland private sector move towards stabilisation amid a reduction in near-term uncertainty. Business activity fell at a softer pace thanks to broadly unchanged new order volumes. Meanwhile, firms raised their staffing levels for the second month running and business confidence was the highest since April 2018.
Business activity declines for tenth month running at end of 2019
Today sees the release of December data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled further reductions in output and new orders, but rates of decline softened. Meanwhile, companies increased their staffing levels for the first time in a year and confidence regarding the 12-month outlook for activity improved amid reduced uncertainty around Brexit. On the price front, the rate of input cost inflation softened again and companies lowered their output prices for the first time in over four years.
Sharpest fall in business activity for seven years
Today sees the release of November data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to sharper declines in output and new orders at Northern Ireland companies, as Brexit uncertainty continued to weigh on activity. Employment also decreased, albeit at a relatively modest pace. Meanwhile, the rate of input cost inflation remained marked, but efforts to stimulate sales led companies to raise their selling prices at only a marginal pace.
Three quarters full or three quarters empty?
They say a week is a long time in politics and it can also be a long time in economics. Over the past seven days, we’ve had a wave of data released that tells us much about what happened in the third quarter of the year and how the local economy is currently performing.
