Weekly Brief – Gloomy

Following a path laid by the US Federal Reserve, who recently adopted a more neutral position towards monetary policy, the Bank of England’s February Inflation report clearly signalled no urgency to raise rates. The 2019 growth forecast was cut sharply. The main culprits were mounting concerns about Brexit plus the wider global outlook.

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Employment falls for first time in four years

Today sees the release of January data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that business conditions in Northern Ireland were subdued at the start of 2019 amid Brexit uncertainty. Business activity rose at the weakest pace in 28 months, while new orders increased only marginally. As a result, companies lowered staffing levels for the first time in four years.

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Time to put purpose before profit?

2018 will go down as the year of the backstop but it could also be dubbed the year of skills shortages, particularly in sectors such as hospitality and IT. In 2019, it remains to be seen whether the backstop comes into being, but one thing that is for sure is skills shortages will remain a feature and persist throughout the next 12 months and beyond.

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Carpark economics: warning lights appearing on global economic dashboard

The make-up of carparks has long been a good indicator of trends in the domestic economy, given that cars are the biggest discretionary expenditure item after purchasing a home. But the car market has also become a key barometer of what is happening in the global economy, and trends in the sector now need to be closely watched to understand what’s going on.

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Weekly Brief – Unparalleled times

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Prime Minister Theresa May is due to unveil Brexit plan B to Parliament today but it is unlikely to differ much from her first version. Following a crushing defeat on the Withdrawal Agreement and having narrowly survived a no-confidence vote, Mrs May offered an olive branch of cross party talks but was rebuffed by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Talk of an extension of Article 50 is on the rise but an exit from EU without a deal is still possible.
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