When it’s cold and dark, we naturally look forward to the warmth and light of festivities ahead. For the UK economy, we can with reasonable confidence anticipate some future vantage point from which we will be able to look back on the difficult recent period of inflation and monetary tightening. The next official statistics on inflation will likely show gradual progress. Confidence about other outcomes, though, notably long-term productivity growth and global decarbonisation, can feel more like a leap of faith.
