Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Waiting and Watching

The oft-repeated light at the end of the tunnel may just be glowing a little brighter. Falling infection rates coupled with the timely vaccine rollout, the impressive housing market bounceback and an optimistic forecast set by the Bank of England are all stock for the refreshment station of this long marathon. But this is not the only race we are running. A timely reminder last week came on the miles ahead to protect the natural world.  

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Jab and go (hopefully)

There’s no doubt the lockdown has taken a significant toll on the UK economy.  Add to that Brexit effects are showing up in the form of higher costs and disruptions at the border. But the pace of vaccination remains very impressive, and with it confidence builds of a strong recovery. An outlook echoed by the IMF this past week.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Feeling the chill

The going was expected to get tough. Whether it is the newly released transactions data or the familiar PMI prints, indications are the UK economy’s Covid recovery has gone into reverse. But we could recover “at a rate of knots” from the second quarter, as per the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, with the roll out of the vaccine. Fingers crossed!

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Patience

It’s going to be some more time before we can wake the UK economy from its economic slumber. Last week, virus-led restrictions tightened in Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland. And there are ominous signs of further weakening activity in January. That said, the November GDP print has strengthened hopes of lesser-than-expected damage in Q1 2021.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Getting Frosty

PMI survey readings for November unsurprisingly indicated a setback in the recovery. The silver lining is that it’s a lot less compared to the first lockdown. It’s the challenge beyond implied by a stricter tiering system that’s the new concern. A difficult winter no doubt. The recovery will only get down to business when a vaccine is rolled out.  

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Testing times

The incoming data for October shows what was widely expected, a slowdown in momentum. Mobility indicators have retreated as much of the world has reverted to some combination of reimposed restrictions. At least there are hopeful signs across countries of the latest wave having peaked or indeed being in retreat, but it is still early days.

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