Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Getting Frosty

PMI survey readings for November unsurprisingly indicated a setback in the recovery. The silver lining is that it’s a lot less compared to the first lockdown. It’s the challenge beyond implied by a stricter tiering system that’s the new concern. A difficult winter no doubt. The recovery will only get down to business when a vaccine is rolled out.  

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Testing times

The incoming data for October shows what was widely expected, a slowdown in momentum. Mobility indicators have retreated as much of the world has reverted to some combination of reimposed restrictions. At least there are hopeful signs across countries of the latest wave having peaked or indeed being in retreat, but it is still early days.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Lock-tober Fest!

Customarily a month renowned for beer festivals, October is shaping up to be quite the opposite this year with restrictions around the hospitality sector to varying degrees across the UK. Indeed, time has been called across the pubs in Scotland’s central belt.  Daily Covid-19 cases continue to surge across much of Europe, snuffing out any glimmer of hope for a V-shaped recovery. The ball is in the policymakers’ court, yet again.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Back again?

Staging a retreat from outsized policy stimulus was never going to be straightforward. Indeed in many countries the trend is in the other direction. The French government has announced a €100bn stimulus plan, while its Spanish and German counterparts look set to extend their furlough schemes. Might the UK recovery need a bit of a helping hand, too in the coming months?

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