Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Back again?

Staging a retreat from outsized policy stimulus was never going to be straightforward. Indeed in many countries the trend is in the other direction. The French government has announced a €100bn stimulus plan, while its Spanish and German counterparts look set to extend their furlough schemes. Might the UK recovery need a bit of a helping hand, too in the coming months?

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Back in the black

Global output returned to growth for the first time since January. July was a pivotal month for the PMI surveys with a surge in the number of economies crossing the expansion (>50) threshold. The US, Eurozone, UK, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland PMIs all returned to growth last month for the first time since COVID-19 struck. Notable absentees still stuck in the red (contraction) include Brazil, India, Japan and Scotland. 

Negative And Positive Thinking. Optimism or pessimism is a personal choice. Friendly or aggressive attitude
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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Uncomfortably numb?

Q2 GDP fell off a cliff. Yet months of shocking headlines has made record declines feel somewhat “normal”. They’re not. What is creating a stir is the rising number of hotspots locally as well as globally. The battle with the virus is going to be long, drawn out, and fraught with unpalatable trade-offs, especially between lives and livelihood.

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