Following the recent Grieve amendment, the chances of Parliament passing PM Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow look very slim. A rejection would force Mrs May to unveil a Plan B next Monday. An array of outcomes is possible with an increasing chance of Article 50 being extended.
2018 was the Chinese year of the dog, but in this part of the world, it will go down as the year of the backstop, when promises around the Irish border came back to bite Theresa May. Indeed, some have said that Brexit as a whole was the one instance when the canine caught the car and then didn’t know what to do with it.
What were the economic highlights and lowlights of 2018? What will be good, bad and ugly in 2019? Who will be next year’s economic villain? What word would you use to sum up what you expect to see in the next 12 months? These and many other questions about the Northern Ireland and global economies are asked and discussed in our new podcast, which we’ve boldly called the Big Economic Quiz of the Year.
And fittingly, we have some big fish from the local economics community contributing. Angela McGowan, Director of the CBI in Northern Ireland and Richard Johnston, Deputy Director of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre join our own Richard Ramsey and business journalist Jamie Delargy to review, predict and ruminate.
Last week the focus was on the Bank of England’s no-deal Brexit scenarios. This week it will be Parliament in the lime-light.
The UK Treasury painted a downbeat picture for the UK economy in the event of a no-Brexit deal but was surpassed by an even more pessimistic prognosis from the Bank of England. Still, all major UK banks passed the latest annual stress tests assuming a worst case scenario, highlighting significantly enhanced capital positions.
The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement was rubber stamped by the EU 27 leaders on Sunday after 20 months of negotiation. Yet the agreement might be entering the most difficult phase of its life as it’s unclear how the legislation will get through Parliament with so many MPs saying they’ll vote against it. Prime Minister Theresa May has vowed to deliver Brexit, the next few weeks should reveal which package arrives.
The publication of a draft EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement puts down on paper the debates of the last 18 months. Its progress is far from assured, but we were also given a glimpse of what the future might look like from the accompanying political declaration. Here’s our take on the key points along with the latest UK data.
Today sees the release of October data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to a slight pick-up in growth in October, with both output and new orders rising more quickly than in September. Rates of expansion were still weaker than seen earlier in the year, however. The rate of job creation also ticked up, but business sentiment dropped to the weakest in the 20-month series history. On the price front, both input costs and output prices increased at sharper rates amid higher costs for a range of inputs.
The Bank of England’s latest forecasts show inflation staying above the 2% target, despite rising UK rate expectations. Prices should get a further boost from the looser fiscal policy announced in the Budget. But, as ever, all those forecasts hinge on a smooth Brexit.
The UK recovery remains imbalanced. Consumer spending rebounded in Q2 but investment weakened. Ongoing Brexit uncertainty continues to overhang the corporate sector.