Brexit

Northern Ireland’s economic miracle?

June 21, 2022June 21, 2022Richard RamseyLeave a comment

We saw further evidence last week in the form of the output figures for manufacturing and services that Northern Ireland’s economy has been outperforming the rest of the UK. This follows recent experimental data from ONS which showed Northern Ireland’s relative recovery from the pandemic has been second only to London. We also know that Northern Ireland has the lowest level of unemployment in the UK. So, is Northern Ireland experiencing some kind of Protocol-fueled economic miracle? The reality is, ‘it’s complicated’.

HAFNIA SOYA unloading oil at Belfast Harbour Northern Ireland

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Mixed feelings

December 14, 2020December 14, 2020Richard RamseyLeave a comment

It’s usually the time of year when Christmas cheer spreads far and wide. But we seem to be ending 2020 on a mixed note. Growth continues to falter and signs of deeper damage to the economy are surfacing. All our hopes are pinned on the vaccine and that we swerve a Brexit left hook.

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Slower fall in activity amid stabilisation in new orders

February 10, 2020February 10, 2020Richard RamseyLeave a comment

Today sees the release of January data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – saw the Northern Ireland private sector move towards stabilisation amid a reduction in near-term uncertainty. Business activity fell at a softer pace thanks to broadly unchanged new order volumes. Meanwhile, firms raised their staffing levels for the second month running and business confidence was the highest since April 2018.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Out

February 3, 2020February 3, 2020Richard RamseyLeave a comment

The UK has left the European Union. The transition period, during which the UK remains in both the single market and customs union, lasts until the end of the year, with trade negotiations set to start in March. In the background, the Bank of England kept Bank Rate unchanged, but lowered its forecast for the 2019 UK economy to 0.75%.

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Business activity declines for tenth month running at end of 2019

January 13, 2020January 13, 2020Richard RamseyLeave a comment

Today sees the release of December data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI^®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled further reductions in output and new orders, but rates of decline softened. Meanwhile, companies increased their staffing levels for the first time in a year and confidence regarding the 12-month outlook for activity improved amid reduced uncertainty around Brexit. On the price front, the rate of input cost inflation softened again and companies lowered their output prices for the first time in over four years.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Uncertain times

December 16, 2019December 17, 2019Richard RamseyLeave a comment

2019 was a year of heightened uncertainty. It was coming from the Brexit delays and negotiations, new resurgence in the trade wars and worsening global economic outlook. Locally, Northern Ireland notched up another year of Stormont in ‘cold storage’. 2020 has a busy brief locally, nationally and globally.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Another cut

November 4, 2019Richard RamseyLeave a comment

The US Fed has made the third consecutive cut to its benchmark rate to 1.5 to 1.75%, but signalled that it does not expect a further cut in December. Chairman Jay Powell said that a preliminary US-China trade deal and lower risk of a no-deal Brexit had the potential to increase business confidence. So it’s a pause for now. How long will it last?

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Brexit deal: something for everyone

October 24, 2019Richard RamseyLeave a comment

Overall, there was something for everyone in the latest deal. The backstop was binned, there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland and the UK will be free to follow its own independent trade policy. There was some surprise that the UK Prime Minister was able to secure a deal so quickly. While the EU made some concessions, the movement in negotiations was primarily due to Boris Johnson removing some of the UK government’s red lines.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Crunch time

October 21, 2019Richard RamseyLeave a comment

The UK Government and the European negotiating team have reached a new deal. Despite this the Prime Minister had to send a three-month extension request to the EU. However, there is still a chance that the deal will be passed into law before the 31^st of October. With 11 days to go all options (deal, no deal, extension) are still on the table.

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Peak uncertainty

October 15, 2019October 15, 2019Richard RamseyLeave a comment

Uncertainty is the word that has perhaps come up even more often than Brexit in recent times. We talk about it a lot and even about how it is increasing. But how do we measure it and how do we know if things are more or less uncertain now than in the past?

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