The tectonic plates of the established global trading system are moving. BRUMP – the Brexit vote and the Trump presidency – have created two fault lines – one in North America and the other in Europe.
2016 therefore looks to have been the peak for trade liberalisation. Moves to create a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and a European equivalent – the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) – have already been scuppered by the current US President. These initiatives, years in development, were cancelled with a stroke of a pen earlier this year. Meanwhile Trump’s administration is also seeking to dismantle the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA). Continue reading
The latest PMI highlights many noteworthy trends on the local, national and global economies from February 2017. This slide pack explores them in more detail. Continue reading
Markets are betting the US Fed will raise rates next week but strong jobs and confidence data are somewhat at odds with growth that is far from spectacular.
After 19 months of campaigning at a cost of $2.7 billion the United States has elected its new leader. There’s a tendency to endow political events with too much significance but President-Elect Trump’s approach to some elements of economic policy represent a clear break with the past. What should we expect?
The UK economy may be on the cusp of receiving two new little growth boosts. Firstly, the Chancellor signalled an adjustment in fiscal policy to free up cash for investment. Second, the recent fall in sterling may do what the crisis-driven fall in sterling couldn’t: help generate a sustained export improvement. Both would certainly be welcome. Continue reading
It’s looking a lot like October all over again. Just as a flurry of US policymakers were talking up the chances of a Fed rate rise later this month, the labour market produces a bad headline and throws it all into doubt. Exactly the same thing happened towards the end of last year when October’s move was postponed till December.
Growth in the world economy is subdued, so there’s heightened focus on whether the UK economy is slowing. Most measures are still showing growth, just less of it than had been hoped. But poor productivity growth is what’s really holding us back. Continue reading
A former Bank of England Governor once said of central banking that “boring is best”. Last week though, central bankers were once again hogging the limelight. First off, the US Federal Reserve, which having raised rates must now work out whether the economy can support them. Second the Bank of Japan, which joined the negative rate club. And with all eyes on the Bank of England this week, “boring” seems a distant memory.
The Chinese stock market and manufacturing sector got the new year off to a less than ideal start, but better than expected US employment and Euro Area business data gave some cause for cheer.
Northern Ireland has very strong economic links with the US, when we look at a range of indicators, including visitors to NI, manufacturing exports, the number of US businesses operating in Northern Ireland and the number of local people American firms employ.
With it being around 4th July time, this graphic gives a snapshot of those strong economic links.
For further context, it is also worth noting, for instance, that US visitors spent nearly £55million in NI in 2014, which works out on average at nearly £300 per visitor, compared to £220 per English visitor, and around £200 per German visitor.