President Trump agreed a détente with President Jinping, bringing some respite from the ongoing trade war. It should provide some short-term relief to markets. But it’s premature to suggest a deal is a foregone conclusion
A weaker than expected US employment report is adding to rising concerns about the global economy, fuelling expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon, possibly this summer. ECB president Draghi signalled the door is open for further monetary measures to support the weak Euro area economy, if needed.
Global trade tensions are ratcheting up. Whilst the US and China trade blows President Trump warned of a 5% increase in tariffs on Mexican imports, rising 5% a month up to a maximum 25% in October. Meanwhile China’s manufacturing PMI came in a little soft. But tariffs can only partly be blamed there.
The UK labour market remains in rude health, a key support for the household sector. In contrast, US and Chinese retail sales disappointed. Meanwhile, German growth rebounded in early 2019 but the economy remains fragile.
The old saying is that the US economy sneezes and the rest of the world catches cold. This phrase reflected the old influence and dominance of America in the global economy. However, since the worldwide recession a decade ago, China has had a spectacular rise and is challenging US hegemony. Indeed, the concerns now are about the Chinese Dragon spreading its economic germs.
US/Sino trade tensions are rising. US President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Chinese imports has prompted threats of retaliation by China, posing downside risks to the global economy as supply chains are disrupt and business sentiment suffers. Meanwhile, UK Q1 GDP data highlights the resilience of the UK economy.
The US economy is the main engine of global growth, posting higher than expected growth in Q1 2019. In China, latest GDP data hints at a stabilisation in activity thanks largely to another sizeable fiscal boost. However, recent downbeat Euro area business surveys point to a continued sub-par performance in early 2019.
Another strong US employment report and improved manufacturing sentiment contrasts with continued lacklustre Euro area growth and a downbeat Chinese PMI survey, highlighting diverging trends in the global economy.
UK growth has picked up a bit of speed in Q3, judging from latest monthly GDP figures, with strength widespread. However, recent favourable weather flattered the headline rate, so a moderation in growth looks likely in Q4.
Latest monthly UK PMI surveys were upbeat, hinting at firmer Q3 GDP. Increasing skill shortages suggest a pick-up in wage growth in coming months, supportive for cash strapped consumers.