Hurricane means hurricane… but what category will it be?

We are currently in Atlantic hurricane season, and with five major hurricanes to date, it looks like it will be the most active one in around seven years, as well as the costliest ever. With the Brexit vote and Trump, it could also be said that we are moving into a very unsettled economic and political weather system. Indeed, it is perhaps the stormiest forecast, economically and politically, the UK and US have faced since around 2010. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – No time to rest

Unemployment may be low and job growth robust, but it’s not time to rest. The UK’s productivity performance is screaming for more investment. So it’s encouraging that more spending on infrastructure and R&D look to be key planks of the government’s ‘industrial strategy’. We await Wednesday’s Autumn Statement for more detail.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – The only way is up (maybe)

One pound coin on fluctuating graph. Rate of the pound sterling (shallow DOF)
One pound coin on fluctuating graph. Rate of the pound sterling (shallow DOF)

As the world watches and waits for the outcome of the US election there are signs of modest improvements in performance across the major economies. The Bank of England marked up its 2017 growth forecast. The US continues to create jobs apace. Even the eurozone gives some cause for optimism. What could possibly go wrong?  Continue reading