Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Another cut

The US Fed has made the third consecutive cut to its benchmark rate to 1.5 to 1.75%, but signalled that it does not expect a further cut in December. Chairman Jay Powell said that a preliminary US-China trade deal and lower risk of a no-deal Brexit had the potential to increase business confidence. So it’s a pause for now. How long will it last?

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Brexit breakthrough?

Encouraging discussions between UK PM Johnson and Irish president Varadkar fuelled optimism of a Brexit resolution. However, the thorny issue of the Irish border remains a major stumbling block. Time is running out for a deal at October’s EU summit. Meanwhile, a “partial” US/China trade deal has been agreed but hurdles remain. 

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Waiting for the good news

All eyes were on political theatre in Westminster last week. No-deal Brexit looks more likely. And with it some economic disruption – how much is unknown. The global economic outlook is not promising: the US and China are still locked in the trade war and the Eurozone is fighting to stave off a recession.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Ratcheting up

US/China trade tensions are intensifying. The Chinese authorities announced $75bn 5-10% tariffs on US imports, targeting cars, oil and soya. US President Trump retaliated, unveiling further tariff rises though his stance at the latest G7 meeting was conciliatory. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell hinted at another rate cut soon.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Mounting trade jitters

Global trade tensions are ratcheting up. Whilst the US and China trade blows President Trump warned of a 5% increase in tariffs on Mexican imports, rising 5% a month up to a maximum 25% in October. Meanwhile China’s manufacturing PMI came in a little soft. But tariffs can only partly be blamed there.

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When China sneezes….

The old saying is that the US economy sneezes and the rest of the world catches cold. This phrase reflected the old influence and dominance of America in the global economy. However, since the worldwide recession a decade ago, China has had a spectacular rise and is challenging US hegemony. Indeed, the concerns now are about the Chinese Dragon spreading its economic germs.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Deal or no deal?

US/Sino trade tensions are rising. US President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Chinese imports has prompted threats of retaliation by China, posing downside risks to the global economy as supply chains are disrupt and business sentiment suffers. Meanwhile, UK Q1 GDP data highlights the resilience of the UK economy.

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