Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Out

The UK has left the European Union. The transition period, during which the UK remains in both the single market and customs union, lasts until the end of the year, with trade negotiations set to start in March. In the background, the Bank of England kept Bank Rate unchanged, but lowered its forecast for the 2019 UK economy to 0.75%.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Oil shock

Attacks on two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia led to a 6% reduction in global oil supply and a 15% oil price spike within days. Saudi Arabian assurances that oil production levels will return to normal within weeks have been greeted sceptically. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points following a round of monetary easing by the ECB. Bank of England decided to save its firepower for later.

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Weekly Brief – Deep impact

The UK Treasury painted a downbeat picture for the UK economy in the event of a no-Brexit deal but was surpassed by an even more pessimistic prognosis from the Bank of England. Still, all major UK banks passed the latest annual stress tests assuming a worst case scenario, highlighting significantly enhanced capital positions.

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