The Bank of England is more upbeat about the UK economy than three months ago, but its hands are tied by Brexit. Across the Atlantic booming employment coupled with a 50yr low in the unemployment rate looks set to keep a lid on expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The UK Treasury painted a downbeat picture for the UK economy in the event of a no-Brexit deal but was surpassed by an even more pessimistic prognosis from the Bank of England. Still, all major UK banks passed the latest annual stress tests assuming a worst case scenario, highlighting significantly enhanced capital positions.
The Bank of England’s latest forecasts show inflation staying above the 2% target, despite rising UK rate expectations. Prices should get a further boost from the looser fiscal policy announced in the Budget. But, as ever, all those forecasts hinge on a smooth Brexit.
As expected the BoE kept its powder dry following August’s rate hike. Meanwhile, the ECB remains on course to halt QE by year-end but tame inflation suggests a rate hike is some way off. In contrast, the Fed looks odds on to tighten policy further later this month.
The US economy is humming and wage pressures are building, keeping the Fed on track for another modest tightening in September. UK growth, however, remains lacklustre with manufacturing in the doldrums. A BoE rate hike appears a distant prospect.
An upbeat speech from Bank of England governor Mark Carney shortens the odds of an August rate hike
A sharp slowdown in economic activity adds to calls for the Bank of England to pause before raising interest rates.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has taken some flak for talking about interest rate rises in the past, but not delivering. That ended last week when the MPC’s raised Bank Rate. Now to see how the economy responds. Continue reading
It’s a familiar narrative for the UK. Strong job growth but signs of a weakening consumer on the back of paltry income growth squeezed by higher inflation. Yet markets are convinced the Bank of England is raising rates on 2 November. The latest data suggests the decision will likely be more finely balanced for policy-makers. Continue reading
The Bank of England is debating the best way to tackle the UK’s current dose of inflation. But for the central banks of the Eurozone and the US the issue is stubbornly low inflation. Continue reading