Flattered by furlough… a jobs rewind beckons?

Lockdowns prompted a pause in the labour market with Rishi Sunak rolling out the safety net that was the Job Retention Scheme (JRS). With the play button then hit as many sectors went back to work. In more recent times, we’ve seen a fast forward in the labour market figures, with the number of payrolls rising for nine consecutive months and hitting a record high for the third month running in August. We may well see this trend continue in September. But with the furlough scheme ending in a couple of weeks, we know it isn’t going to be a straight-line recovery from there. The Jobs Retention Scheme has flattered the jobs figures.  But we’re now moving to a new stage of the recovery, a stage where stimulus is being turned off, inflationary headwinds are intensifying and the increased burden of tax rises is due to be felt from April 2022. We may well therefore see something of a rewind in the jobs data in the next few months as the labour market adapts to the post-furlough world. Don’t be surprised if we see payrolls fall back below pre-pandemic levels before the year is out.  Getting back to pre-pandemic levels of self-employment and hours worked will take quite some time.

So, what is the latest batch of labour market statistics from NISRA telling us?

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Fall in furlough but bigger fall to come

Comment on today’s HMRC update for the number of jobs furloughed in Northern Ireland as of 31 March 2021. 

Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate has been kept artificially low due to the arrival of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) last year. The latest HMRC figures released this morning revealed that there were 99,400 jobs on furlough on 31st March 2021. That represented the first dip below 100,000 this year and a fall of 9,200 (-8%) relative to the end of February (108,600). Over two-thirds of these jobs were fully furloughed with the remainder partially furloughed. At the start of July 2020 there were a total of 139,100 jobs on furlough. This fell to a post-lockdown low of 65,100 at the end of September. The extension of the JRS and a return to lockdown saw the number of furloughed employments rise to a lower secondary peak of 117,700 in mid-January 2021.   

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Business activity shows signs of stabilisation in March

Today sees the release of March data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to output and new orders nearing stabilisation, while employment increased amid growing confidence for the year-ahead outlook. That said, input costs and output prices surged at record rates, while there were widespread reports of supply delays.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Keep the good news coming

The next step of lockdown easing in England will proceed as planned – non-essential retail, outdoor pubs and restaurants and hairdressers (a massive relief!) will re-open next week. While the data says that household savings pots are ready to lend a big helping hand!  And with it the route out of the UK being a G7 economic laggard. As for those of us in Northern Ireland, there is no end of the dodgy haircut, or indicative dates for reopening, in sight.

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Sunak: the Big Extender and Big Freezer

Today’s Budget was largely as expected. Much of the content had been flagged beforehand, and then there were the big manifesto pledges that were off limits. But that’s not to say it wasn’t a significant Budget, and it may indeed be the last, or penultimate, big spending Budget. Rishi Sunak today announced £37.5billion of spending in the current financial year and the next. Apart from last year’s Budget, it is, by any historical comparisons outside of the pandemic, a huge amount of spending. What’s concerning though is that spending in future years is going to be cut at progressively larger amounts, and next April will therefore herald the start of four consecutive years of public spending cuts. On the tax front, there were further cuts or extensions of existing tax cuts in some areas but also tax rises in others.

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NI house prices rising but supply softening

This time is different. Northern Ireland’s housing market was front and centre during the last recession during the late noughties. But this time is different. While output has posted its steepest fall in a century, the housing market has been one aspect of the economy that has fared better than most. Residential property prices have defied gravity and have just completed their seventh consecutive year of annual price growth. Meanwhile housebuilders and estate agents have witnessed a ‘V-shaped’ recovery from the record rates of decline in house completions and transactions.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – ‘Exhausted’ but ‘hopeful’

This week’s title draws on the most popular words being used to describe 2020 and 2021 according to a recent survey. Well barring the expletives! The fight against the virus has left the world worn out but this has not prevented households and businesses from hoping for a better future, even when new challenges continue to arise. So it’s a hopeful note that we end our year on.

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Emergency, Emergency, Emergency

Rishi Sunak hasn’t yet completed a year as Chancellor but he is a crisis veteran. The word ‘emergency’ featured four times in Sunak’s speech in which he outlined the UK’s three emergencies. These are health, economic and fiscal. “Our health emergency is not yet over.  And our economic emergency has only just begun”.  

Recent developments on the vaccine front have provided a much needed shot in the arm for optimism for 2021. In turn, that has filtered through to the economic forecasts. Nevertheless, there is no economic vaccine for the deepest recession in 300 years, just painkillers.

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