After a strong global recovery, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine clouds the economic outlook which was already suffering from rising energy prices. New and wide-ranging sanctions are now being added to the mix of supply chain bottlenecks, all of which are likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures for consumers and businesses.
Will it? Won’t it? On Friday we learned that, after delivering a strong first quarter performance, UK GDP contracted by 0.2% in the three months to June. This marks the first outright decline in economic activity since 2012 and puts the UK uncomfortably close to ‘technical recession’ territory just as global growth is faltering.
While two of the SpaceX rocket boosters landed gently back on terra firma it was a much more turbulent period in the markets. US equities had their worst week in two years and volatility woke from its slumber. The Bank of England also gave the markets a little shake, indicating a rate hike in May is more likely than previously expected. Continue reading
“Global growth remains strong.” That was key judgement number one underpinning the Bank of England’s forecast in the most recent Inflation Report. The Eurozone has been at the heart of the improvement to the global economy over the past 12 months and, in turn, that’s been supportive to the UK. Can it all continue? Continue reading
Keeping our fingers crossed about an improvement in productivity isn’t working. Last week provided a stark reminder that the UK’s problem in this area remains critical. In fact, it seems to be getting worse. Continue reading
The Chancellor would happily swap the UK’s current annual economic growth rate with its inflation rate. While GDP growth remains sluggish and below the rates being experienced in most other EU countries, the converse is true for inflation. Continue reading
The UK economy is hardly firing when growth accelerates by half, only to reach 0.3%q/q. Yet many would settle for that given the predictions made last year. For that thank a surprisingly strong service sector that’s supporting generalised weakness elsewhere. Until the other parts of the economy start moving, growth will remain sluggish.
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The latest PMI highlights some noteworthy trends on the local, national and global economy from March 2017. This slide pack explores them in more detail.
Key highlights include: Continue reading
The latest PMI highlights many noteworthy trends on the local, national and global economy from April 2017. This slide pack explores them in more detail. Continue reading
The latest PMI highlights many noteworthy trends on the local, national and global economy from March 2017. This slide pack explores them in more detail. Continue reading
