Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – UK plc in the red

Will it?  Won’t it?  On Friday we learned that, after delivering a strong first quarter performance, UK GDP contracted by 0.2% in the three months to June.  This marks the first outright decline in economic activity since 2012 and puts the UK uncomfortably close to ‘technical recession’ territory just as global growth is faltering.

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Back down to Earth

While two of the SpaceX rocket boosters landed gently back on terra firma it was a much more turbulent period in the markets. US equities had their worst week in two years and volatility woke from its slumber. The Bank of England also gave the markets a little shake, indicating a rate hike in May is more likely than previously expected.  Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Lone star

The UK economy is hardly firing when growth accelerates by half, only to reach 0.3%q/q. Yet many would settle for that given the predictions made last year. For that thank a surprisingly strong service sector that’s supporting generalised weakness elsewhere. Until the other parts of the economy start moving, growth will remain sluggish.menu-coffee-outside-cafe.jpg Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Better than expected

eu-1473958_1920The Bank of England’s upgrade to its GDP growth forecast this year takes it almost back to pre-referendum levels.  Meanwhile the Government published some of its post-Brexit policy goals in a discussion document.

BoostThe Monetary Policy Committee’s new forecasts show GDP growth of 2% for the UK this year. Continue reading