Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Better than expected

eu-1473958_1920The Bank of England’s upgrade to its GDP growth forecast this year takes it almost back to pre-referendum levels.  Meanwhile the Government published some of its post-Brexit policy goals in a discussion document.

BoostThe Monetary Policy Committee’s new forecasts show GDP growth of 2% for the UK this year. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Shock Therapy

westminster-902972_1920

An extension to budget deficit reduction amidst weaker productivity growth and some measures to fix the latter – it feels like Budgets and Autumn Statements have always been thus. Last week was no different and changing the narrative is tricky. Therapy for productivity is key. It just may need to be more of the ‘shock’ variety.  Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – The only way is up (maybe)

One pound coin on fluctuating graph. Rate of the pound sterling (shallow DOF)
One pound coin on fluctuating graph. Rate of the pound sterling (shallow DOF)

As the world watches and waits for the outcome of the US election there are signs of modest improvements in performance across the major economies. The Bank of England marked up its 2017 growth forecast. The US continues to create jobs apace. Even the eurozone gives some cause for optimism. What could possibly go wrong?  Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Something new

The UK economy may be on the cusp of receiving two new little growth boosts. Firstly, the Chancellor signalled an adjustment in fiscal policy to free up cash for investment. Second, the recent fall in sterling may do what the crisis-driven fall in sterling couldn’t: help generate a sustained export improvement. Both would certainly be welcome. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – The fall

UK businesses appear in decent shape. Turnover is up as are Corporation Tax receipts. Yet sterling has lost roughly one-tenth of its value since June and that’s raising input costs and squeezing profits. A long summer of falling costs boosting profits is coming to an end. Continue reading