The latest PMI highlights many noteworthy trends on the local, national and global economy from March 2017. This slide pack explores them in more detail. Continue reading
The Bank of England’s upgrade to its GDP growth forecast this year takes it almost back to pre-referendum levels. Meanwhile the Government published some of its post-Brexit policy goals in a discussion document.
Boost. The Monetary Policy Committee’s new forecasts show GDP growth of 2% for the UK this year. Continue reading
Rising inequality has been blamed for everything from slow growth to political earthquakes last year, but on at least one sensible measure income inequality in the UK is substantially lower than it was before the recession. Continue reading
December’s data indicates a clean sweep of good growth across UK, Europe and US. 2016 went out with a bang. Continue reading
An extension to budget deficit reduction amidst weaker productivity growth and some measures to fix the latter – it feels like Budgets and Autumn Statements have always been thus. Last week was no different and changing the narrative is tricky. Therapy for productivity is key. It just may need to be more of the ‘shock’ variety. Continue reading
As the world watches and waits for the outcome of the US election there are signs of modest improvements in performance across the major economies. The Bank of England marked up its 2017 growth forecast. The US continues to create jobs apace. Even the eurozone gives some cause for optimism. What could possibly go wrong? Continue reading
The UK economy may be on the cusp of receiving two new little growth boosts. Firstly, the Chancellor signalled an adjustment in fiscal policy to free up cash for investment. Second, the recent fall in sterling may do what the crisis-driven fall in sterling couldn’t: help generate a sustained export improvement. Both would certainly be welcome. Continue reading
UK businesses appear in decent shape. Turnover is up as are Corporation Tax receipts. Yet sterling has lost roughly one-tenth of its value since June and that’s raising input costs and squeezing profits. A long summer of falling costs boosting profits is coming to an end. Continue reading
A decent month which saw a rebound in trade and a decent year for industry still leave gaps in both. The trade deficit remains at near-record levels while industrial output is 7% lower than it was a decade ago. The first gap is the more significant. Continue reading
Those waiting for the post-vote shoe to drop will be disappointed. On most measures either the initial ‘Brexit’ shock has been reversed or it never happened. So much depends on jobs – their availability and pay. It’s early days still.