Activity falls markedly in October

Today sees the release of October data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that the Northern Ireland private sector remained in contraction. Business activity, new orders and employment all decreased over the month, albeit at softer rates than in September. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures also moderated.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Brexit breakthrough?

Encouraging discussions between UK PM Johnson and Irish president Varadkar fuelled optimism of a Brexit resolution. However, the thorny issue of the Irish border remains a major stumbling block. Time is running out for a deal at October’s EU summit. Meanwhile, a “partial” US/China trade deal has been agreed but hurdles remain. 

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Sharpest fall in output since November 2012

Today sees the release of September data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that the Northern Ireland private sector moved deeper into contraction, as Brexit uncertainty impacted negatively on firms’ operations. Output, new orders and employment all fell at sharper rates, while business sentiment dropped to a new record low.

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Output down for sixth month running in August

Today sees the release of August data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – suggested that Brexit and associated economic uncertainty led to ongoing declines in the Northern Ireland private sector during August. Marked reductions in output and new orders were recorded, while business confidence hit a new low and job shedding intensified. 

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Downturn deepens in Northern Ireland private sector

Today sees the release of June data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled a deepening downturn in the Northern Ireland private sector. Brexit uncertainty led to sharper falls in output and new orders, with firms pessimistic regarding the 12-month outlook.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Waning US growth

A weaker than expected US employment report is adding to rising concerns about the global economy, fuelling expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon, possibly this summer. ECB president Draghi signalled the door is open for further monetary measures to support the weak Euro area economy, if needed.  

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Third successive monthly fall in activity

Today sees the release of May data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that the Northern Ireland private sector remained in contraction territory. Activity and new business continued to fall markedly, often linked to Brexit uncertainty. In turn, companies lowered their staffing levels again. There was some relief on the price front, as the rate of input cost inflation eased. That said, the extent of input price increases far outweighed that of selling charges again during the month.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Deal or no deal?

US/Sino trade tensions are rising. US President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Chinese imports has prompted threats of retaliation by China, posing downside risks to the global economy as supply chains are disrupt and business sentiment suffers. Meanwhile, UK Q1 GDP data highlights the resilience of the UK economy.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – How Long?

This week is likely to see the EU grant a longer, but more conditional, extension to Article 50 than the UK Government has requested. Back in Westminster talks continue to try to find a set of proposals that can be passed by the House of Commons. Away from the politics, most economic data has been disappointing.

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Activity declines for first time since July 2016

Today sees the release of March data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – suggested that Brexit uncertainty pushed the Northern Ireland private sector into decline. Business activity decreased for the first time since July 2016, while the rate of decline in new orders gathered pace. This was also the case with regards to employment, which decreased to the greatest extent in almost six years.

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