Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Ratcheting up

US/China trade tensions are intensifying. The Chinese authorities announced $75bn 5-10% tariffs on US imports, targeting cars, oil and soya. US President Trump retaliated, unveiling further tariff rises though his stance at the latest G7 meeting was conciliatory. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell hinted at another rate cut soon.

ratchet-3500129_1920.jpg Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Mounting trade jitters

Global trade tensions are ratcheting up. Whilst the US and China trade blows President Trump warned of a 5% increase in tariffs on Mexican imports, rising 5% a month up to a maximum 25% in October. Meanwhile China’s manufacturing PMI came in a little soft. But tariffs can only partly be blamed there.

logistic-2636250_1920.jpg Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Deal or no deal?

US/Sino trade tensions are rising. US President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Chinese imports has prompted threats of retaliation by China, posing downside risks to the global economy as supply chains are disrupt and business sentiment suffers. Meanwhile, UK Q1 GDP data highlights the resilience of the UK economy.

america-china-commerce-communication-business-concept-1444957-pxhere.com.jpg Continue reading

10 key questions the EU Referendum result raises for Northern Ireland

So, the UK has voted to leave the EU. But what does that actually mean? For now, it means no change, as David Cameron signalled today that his successor decides whether to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Only when this happens does the clock start to tick on two years of negotiation for the UK’s exit from the EU. In the meantime, we have seen heavy falls in UK equities, sterling has slumped, and we can anticipate further short-term volatility. But what are the key questions emerging from the Referendum results from a NI perspective? Continue reading