It’s geopolitics, stupid!

This year, we will see upwards of 40 general elections globally. The big ones are the US Presidential Election, a UK General Election, and an election in India to name but a few. Invariably, candidates will try to position themselves as the candidate of change – even if they are the incumbent. This is the case with Rishi Sunak which is no easy task after 14 years of Conservative government. The reality though is that with the state of the UK public finances, there is going to be little room for change no matter who wins the election. Getting out of the current funk of low growth, economic stagnation and unprecedented pressure on public services will dominate the political agenda for the next decade.

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Left turn?

If we consider politics over the past 10 years or so, what is clear is that there was a distinct step to the right in the UK, in the US and elsewhere in the world; the consensus around dealing with the fall-out of the financial crisis taking us in that direction. But there is evidence that we are now set for something of a left turn. And a look at the policies coming from the main UK political parties ahead of the General Election gives credence to this view.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – And they’re off!

The 2019 General Election is officially underway, with politicians of all colours off in search of votes.  At stake is not only the future of Brexit but of fiscal policy, our response to climate change and more besides.  The UK economy looks pale and weak in contrast to the frenzy of activity amongst would-be-MPs.  Business surveys suggest that output stagnated in October, while the Bank of England downgraded it’s growth forecasts, prompting two Monetary Policy Committee members to vote in favour of an immediate 0.25% rate cut. 

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Institutions fight back

The UK Supreme Court ruled unanimously that proroguing of the Parliament was unlawful. The Parliamentary session has resumed, but there is little clarity on Brexit’s form, date or on the timing of a general election. In the US the House of Representatives has started an impeachment inquiry. At the UN Climate Summit 66 countries, 93 companies and more than 100 cities announced commitments to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

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