So far the Bank of England’s rate hiking cycle had been made somewhat easy by the UK’s strong economic performance. But MPC members perhaps shifted in their chairs as last week’s data releases told a story of fading economic momentum and a cooling labour market. However, wage pressures remain intact, and inflation expectations have edged up. Oil’s been on an upward march of late, feeding higher prices at the pump: petrol’s at its highest level since last December. Lots to ponder ahead of Thursday’s rate decision.

While the eye of the cost-of-living storm may have passed, the impact is continuing to be felt. Household spending appetite is moderating. Businesses are also turning cautious amid rising rates, holding back on major investment and staffing decisions. With the direction of policy still uncertain, this week’s GDP and labour market releases will be crucial indicators of the next move.

The story of the UK’s economic resilience of 2023 is being put to the test – the impact of all those hikes in interest rates may just be beginning to more obviously weigh on growth, according to the latest PMI suveys. The situation is little better elsewhere, with the eurozone in particular exhibiting signs of weakening economic momentum.