Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – An atypical recession

After record declines the PMI surveys for June suggests that a rebound is underway. But then this was expected. And doesn’t alter the outlook of a long and uncertain recovery. The chances of substantial job losses and preventing a flare-up in infections as the economy open up will be among the key challenges. Look no further than the US which has already seen some of the states reimpose restrictions as the second wave continues to intensify.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Further loosening

Retail sales bounced back in May across much of the developed world, thanks to pent up consumer demand. Infections also seem stable across much of Europe. So does this mean a swift recovery from here on? Sadly, perhaps not. Labour markets remain fragile and new infections are rising globally, including parts of the US. So unsurprisingly, policy taps were loosened further last week. 

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Step by step

A week with cause for cautious optimism. The report card on various countries reopening show no upturn in cases in Western Europe. While a better than expected US jobs report and recovering PMIs in China provide some encouragement. But the damage wrought is extensive. It will be a long, arduous journey through recovery with the risk of setbacks along the way considerable. The rising number of cases in the southern US a prime example.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Bottoming out?

Last week, several economies reopened without a material evidence of a spike in infection rates, well, so far.  That said, the northern-southern hemisphere divide in the number of cases continues to widen, leading some (incl. the Fed) to believe that there might be a second wave. Two risks resurfaced – escalation of US-China trade tensions and disruptive Brexit. On the activity front, data for May suggests that the worst might be behind us.

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