The Chancellor opted not to make any changes to tax or spending policy at last week’s Spring Statement, so instead the focus was firmly on the economic assumptions that underpin the public finances.
President Trump imposes tariffs to protect heavy industry whilst a new group of countries slashes barriers.
The Ulster Bank NI PMI for February 2018 is out today. It signalled that the Northern Ireland private sector remained comfortably inside growth territory. That said, rates of expansion in output, new orders and employment all eased over the month. On the other hand, inflationary pressures intensified, with sharper rises in both input costs and prices charged.
Last week’s snow induced disruption will have heaped pressure on sectors like retail, leisure and construction. Firms will have to fight hard amid cancellations to manage cash flow and clear backlogs. It might even knock a tenth of a percent or two off Q1 GDP growth. But it is consumers’ attitudes to borrowing which is raising bigger questions for the health of the economy.
A graph charting instances of house prices being discussed at dinner parties across Belfast and Dublin would show a very large spike around 2007 followed by a deep trough in the years after the boom rediscovered gravity. Indeed, the subject became almost taboo as the downturn unfolded and residential property prices fell almost 60% from their respective peaks.
A graph charting instances of house prices being discussed at dinner parties across Northern Ireland would show a very large spike around 2007 followed by a deep trough in the years after the boom rediscovered gravity. Indeed, the subject became almost taboo as the downturn unfolded.
One swallow a summer does not make, but two swallows? Probably still not enough for a turning point, however much we’d like the UK to crack its productivity problem.
We’re just over a month-and-a-half into 2018, and planes have been dominating the economic news agenda this year so far.
On the one hand, we’ve had the trade dispute between Boeing and Bombardier come to a head, following weeks and indeed months of hand-wringing about the potential impact of any tariffs on the Canadian firm’s Belfast operations. On the other hand, we’ve had another stream of good news on the tourism front, as more and more overseas visitors flock to Belfast and Northern Ireland.
Inflation is pushing UK consumers to take it easy at the shops meaning they’re no longer leading the charge on growth. Meanwhile new technology is shaking up the long established order in world oil markets.
Official figures continue to point to a buoyant Northern Ireland labour market in the third quarter of 2017. Private sector jobs notched up a thirteenth consecutive quarterly rise and are at their highest level since records began in 1974. Public sector job losses have stabilised (at least for the time being) and are around 10% below their 2009 peak. Overall, Northern Ireland has almost 19,000 more jobs (+3%) than at the pre-recession peak. Significantly, there has been a pick-up in full-time employment growth in Q3 which had previously been lagging behind the surge in part-time employment.