Author: Richard Ramsey

Two Up Two Down: Latest housing market statistics

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Today’s batch of housing market figures for the third quarter could be summed up as “two up two down”. Two indicators (residential property prices and house completions) posted year-on-year growth.  Meanwhile housing starts and the number of residential property transactions are on the wane. 

Generation rent. House prices are always one of the most closely watched economic indicators by the general public or at least homeowners and potential first-time buyers.   Although the rise of the private rented sector over the last decade means for an increasing share of society, rental prices are more relevant than house prices. Homeownership is not on the radar for as many under 40s as it once was.

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Has Northern Ireland gone selfie mad?

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Northern Ireland’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) churned out more record highs and lows of the positive variety in Q3 2019.  However, looking through all the statistical noise there are still signs that suggest the labour market cycle has turned. A surge in self-employment has been accompanied by a reduction in the number of ‘employees’ working. Meanwhile the total number of hours worked and average hours worked has eased back from its highs earlier in the year. Given the marked deterioration in business conditions in Q3 and Q4 it is expected that this will increasingly become evident within the labour market in the coming quarters. Q2 2019 is still likely to have represented the peak in the total number of employee jobs as measured in the Quarterly Employment Survey.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – And they’re off!

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The 2019 General Election is officially underway, with politicians of all colours off in search of votes.  At stake is not only the future of Brexit but of fiscal policy, our response to climate change and more besides.  The UK economy looks pale and weak in contrast to the frenzy of activity amongst would-be-MPs.  Business surveys suggest that output stagnated in October, while the Bank of England downgraded it’s growth forecasts, prompting two Monetary Policy Committee members to vote in favour of an immediate 0.25% rate cut. 

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Activity falls markedly in October

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Today sees the release of October data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that the Northern Ireland private sector remained in contraction. Business activity, new orders and employment all decreased over the month, albeit at softer rates than in September. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures also moderated.

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Jobs machine moving down a gear

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Northern Ireland’s labour market continued to break records into the summer months. Unemployment fell to a new low of 2.8% and employment hit a record high of 779k jobs in Q2. That follows 14 consecutive quarters of growth. Looking at the private sector specifically shows a winning streak that is even longer, extending to five years. But can it last? There are signs that the jobs machine is slowing. The number added in the latest quarter marked a three-and-a-half year low. Meanwhile, services, the largest sector of the economy, saw its rate of growth almost grind to a halt.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Another cut

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The US Fed has made the third consecutive cut to its benchmark rate to 1.5 to 1.75%, but signalled that it does not expect a further cut in December. Chairman Jay Powell said that a preliminary US-China trade deal and lower risk of a no-deal Brexit had the potential to increase business confidence. So it’s a pause for now. How long will it last?

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Recovered, recovering and more work to be done

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Northern Ireland’s record breaking labour market has been in the spotlight for quite some time. The focus has been on unemployment hitting all-time lows and the number of jobs reaching all-time highs in Q2 2019. In terms of job numbers, Northern Ireland’s labour market is clearly in a good place, having recovered all the jobs lost in the recession and created tens of thousands of additional jobs too. But what about wages and earnings?

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Draghi’s farewell

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After eight years at the helm President Draghi is bowing out. He will forever be remembered for three words – “whatever it takes”. He certainly played an outsized role in salvaging the single-currency project in its darkest days. It’s now over to Lagarde to pick-up the challenges – convincing reluctant eurozone governments to use fiscal space and pushing inflation back up to target.

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Brexit deal: something for everyone

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Overall, there was something for everyone in the latest deal. The backstop was binned, there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland and the UK will be free to follow its own independent trade policy. There was some surprise that the UK Prime Minister was able to secure a deal so quickly. While the EU made some concessions, the movement in negotiations was primarily due to Boris Johnson removing some of the UK government’s red lines.

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