Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – If at first you don’t succeed

Last week’s series of votes saw the Withdrawal Agreement defeated for a second time, a no deal exit voted down and an instruction to seek a delay to the Article 50 deadline of 29th March passed. The length of the delay is still unclear. If the Withdrawal Agreement passes this week it could be for a couple of months, if not a much longer deadline is possible.
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Export orders fall at their fastest pace in 69 months

Today sees the release of February data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled that business activity in Northern Ireland rose only fractionally in February. The near-stagnation in output reflected Brexit worries, with total new orders falling for the first time in 28 months, new export business down sharply and business sentiment turning negative. Meanwhile, companies lowered their staffing levels for the second month running.

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Weekly Brief – Shifting sands

The landscape for UK politics is changing. News that seven Labour MPs and four Conservative MPs have defected to form a new Independent Group highlights the current fragmented state of UK politics. PM May delayed the “meaningful” vote on Brexit to March 12th, adding to the uncertain picture for the UK economy, meanwhile the labour market powers ahead.

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Cranes, drains and car lanes…

When you walk around the city, there are many very visible things that can give you a clear indication of how the economy is performing. The number of cranes in the skyline is perhaps one of the most obvious ‘finger in the air’ indicators; but other visual evidence includes the number of vacant shop units, the instances of sale signs in shop windows, and the number and types of new cars on the roads. But less obvious things are perhaps as important in understanding the economy, such as what the cranes are actually building, or things under the surface, such as the state of our infrastructure.

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Weekly Brief – Gloomy

Following a path laid by the US Federal Reserve, who recently adopted a more neutral position towards monetary policy, the Bank of England’s February Inflation report clearly signalled no urgency to raise rates. The 2019 growth forecast was cut sharply. The main culprits were mounting concerns about Brexit plus the wider global outlook.

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Employment falls for first time in four years

Today sees the release of January data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that business conditions in Northern Ireland were subdued at the start of 2019 amid Brexit uncertainty. Business activity rose at the weakest pace in 28 months, while new orders increased only marginally. As a result, companies lowered staffing levels for the first time in four years.

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Time to put purpose before profit?

2018 will go down as the year of the backstop but it could also be dubbed the year of skills shortages, particularly in sectors such as hospitality and IT. In 2019, it remains to be seen whether the backstop comes into being, but one thing that is for sure is skills shortages will remain a feature and persist throughout the next 12 months and beyond.

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