UK GDP growth picked up in Q3 but this bounce is likely to be fleeting, judging from latest downbeat business surveys.
economy
Output rises but confidence continues to slide
Today sees the release of October data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to a slight pick-up in growth in October, with both output and new orders rising more quickly than in September. Rates of expansion were still weaker than seen earlier in the year, however. The rate of job creation also ticked up, but business sentiment dropped to the weakest in the 20-month series history. On the price front, both input costs and output prices increased at sharper rates amid higher costs for a range of inputs.
Spend now, tax later
In many ways, yesterday’s budget could be summarised as spend now, tax later.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Different strokes
The US economy is motoring along, driven by recent tax cuts, keeping the Fed on course for further gradual tightening in coming months. However, signs of weakness in the Euro area mean a rate hike is some way off.
New Report says NI Companies need to work harder to attract talented workers
A report that looks at recruitment trends across Northern Ireland is urging local companies to improve their employment offering to attract and retain talent.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – A chink of light for the consumer
Good news for the consumer. Not only have average UK earnings posted their largest rise since 2009 but inflation fell more than expected, boosting hopes the recent real income squeeze is coming to an end.
Wrong direction
Northern Ireland’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) has been a source of record breaking highs and lows of the positive variety over the last two years. More recently, Q1 2018 witnessed an all-time low unemployment rate of 3.1% with a record number of people in work in the three months to May. However, the subsequent data has seen rising unemployment coupled with a falling number of people in work.
Shortfall in essential skills as service demand surges for third sector
Funding concerns and better terms and conditions elsewhere are key factors leading to employees leaving the third sector, creating skills shortages at a time of rising demand, a new report reveals.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Temporary strength?
UK growth has picked up a bit of speed in Q3, judging from latest monthly GDP figures, with strength widespread. However, recent favourable weather flattered the headline rate, so a moderation in growth looks likely in Q4.
Could a beard tax help shave the deficit?
If Philip Hammond has learned from the history of taxation, we could see some interesting developments in the October 29th Budget.
When we look back at some of the taxes we’ve had in the past, it is clear that taxation has had to continually change to keep pace with the times. In 18th century Britain, a hat tax was introduced to raise revenue from the gentrified. It was effectively a stamp duty on the head-dress of the more wealthy – the bigger the hat, the bigger the tax. Top hats had a top rate of 14%.
Candles were also viewed as an extravagance in Georgian England and therefore drew the interest of the exchequer, leading to the introduction of a candle tax. Similar taxes to target the wealthy at the time included, a beard tax introduced by Henry VIII, or an 18th century window tax (the bigger the house, the more windows it would have and the more tax the owners would pay). Continue reading