Sharpest rise in activity in 2017 so far

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Today sees the release of August data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The Northern Ireland private sector recorded faster rises in output and new orders during August, supporting further job creation. Sterling weakness played an important role in the local economy, helping firms to secure new export orders but also adding to inflationary pressures. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Aim high

aim-high-skyscraperPresident Trump has promised to unveil a spectacular reform of the US tax system in the next few weeks to boost the economy. Meanwhile the labour market has been producing spectacular results itself.

Ambitious. The number of Americans in work rose by 227,000 in January and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.8%. During President Obama’s second term employment increased by 12 million (8%), impressive alongside the UK’s still-respectable 3%. President Trump aims to add 25 million jobs over a decade. That’s very ambitious indeed but there are historical precedents: both the Reagan and Clinton administrations saw rates of job growth that, if repeated, would see the target being met. But they both arrived at the White House towards the end of recessions, Trump’s task is harder.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Something new

The UK economy may be on the cusp of receiving two new little growth boosts. Firstly, the Chancellor signalled an adjustment in fiscal policy to free up cash for investment. Second, the recent fall in sterling may do what the crisis-driven fall in sterling couldn’t: help generate a sustained export improvement. Both would certainly be welcome. Continue reading

Output and new orders stagnated during September

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Today sees the release of September data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by Markit – indicated that output and new orders stagnated amid a reluctance among customers to commit to spending. That said, companies continued to increase staffing levels. Meanwhile, the rate of input cost inflation remained sharp and output prices rose solidly again. Continue reading

August sees rise in output following decline in July

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Today sees the release of August data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by Markit – pointed to a rise in activity following the previous month’s decline. That said, new orders decreased for the second successive month. The rate of input cost inflation accelerated to the fastest since November 2011 and firms also raised their output prices at a sharper pace. Continue reading

Output declines for first time in 15 months

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI infographic July 2016

Today sees the release of July data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by Markit – signalled that the month following the UK’s vote to leave the EU saw declines in output and new orders in Northern Ireland. The weakness of sterling following the referendum also led to a sharp acceleration of cost inflation. On a more positive note, employment continued to increase and companies were able to secure greater new export business. Continue reading