Modest acceleration in business activity growth in April

Today sees the release of April data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled a mild acceleration in private sector business activity growth, while new orders continued to increase, albeit only marginally quicker than March’s 17-month low. Nonetheless, despite subdued demand pressures, backlogs of work increased further, prompting firms to hire additional staff. In line with a strong and accelerated rate of input cost inflation, businesses reported a further marked increase selling charges.

APR18 PMI_Digital Continue reading

Full employment or full of inactivity?

In the economic and political world, the term ‘full employment’ has come back from the dead. It was a prevalent term back in the days of Franklin D Roosevelt in the 1940s and Martin Luther-King advocated for it in the 1960s. It also crept back into political parlance in the dying days of George Osborne’s chancellorship in the UK around 2014. Today, we’ve heard it reemerge in the US, where the Fed has said that the US economy is “at or a little beyond full employment”, to some degree in the UK, and it hit the headlines a few weeks ago locally, prompted by a 280-character tweet by yours truly.

tie-690084_1280.jpg Continue reading

Activity rises but orders and jobs growth slip to 7-month low

The Ulster Bank NI PMI for February 2018 is out today. It signalled that the Northern Ireland private sector remained comfortably inside growth territory. That said, rates of expansion in output, new orders and employment all eased over the month. On the other hand, inflationary pressures intensified, with sharper rises in both input costs and prices charged.

Social Continue reading

Timely indicator of what’s happening in the jobs market

laboratory-2815641_1280.jpg

Official figures continue to point to a buoyant Northern Ireland labour market in the third quarter of 2017. Private sector jobs notched up a thirteenth consecutive quarterly rise and are at their highest level since records began in 1974. Public sector job losses have stabilised (at least for the time being) and are around 10% below their 2009 peak. Overall, Northern Ireland has almost 19,000 more jobs (+3%) than at the pre-recession peak. Significantly, there has been a pick-up in full-time employment growth in Q3 which had previously been lagging behind the surge in part-time employment.

Continue reading

Output and new orders continue to expand solidly

Nov PMI Header.png

Today sees the release of November data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to further solid increases in output and new orders, with rates of expansion in both slightly quicker than those recorded in October. Rising workloads led to a further accumulation of outstanding business, with companies increasing staffing levels accordingly. Meanwhile, input cost inflation accelerated to a six-month high. Continue reading