Both Germany and the UK escaped recession, figures last week showed. But both have reason to be concerned about their near-term outlook. UK election campaigning suggests either a (i) large or (ii) enormous dollop of government spending is coming. Germany could do with either.
recession
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Waiting for the good news
All eyes were on political theatre in Westminster last week. No-deal Brexit looks more likely. And with it some economic disruption – how much is unknown. The global economic outlook is not promising: the US and China are still locked in the trade war and the Eurozone is fighting to stave off a recession.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Divergence
A deluge of inflation data and speeches from central bankers put monetary policy in the spotlight last week. Whilst the US is talking up the chances of it raising rates this Summer, at least one of the UK’s rate setters is seriously considering voting to cut rates later this year.
Economic Gongs: Best actors in an increasingly unpopular drama
There is an increasingly unpopular drama unfolding in the global economy. It’s not quite the epic of 2007/8. But it certainly has economists and investors gripped, as we have witnessed the Big Short on oil prices and a Revenant-style bear market that has mauled the share prices of the stock markets’ biggest stars. Continue reading
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Hard Work
We’re all at risk of robots stealing our jobs, or so futurologists are fond of saying. For now though the UK is creating plenty of jobs for humans. The problem remains woeful productivity and weak wage growth.
NI heading for recession?
In the first episode of #TalkingEconomix, leading economists Richard Ramsey and John Simpson shoot the breeze on the Northern Ireland economy. They cover issues including why Northern Ireland may be heading for recession, why the economy is under-performing, and why Northern Ireland’s low tax, high spend fiscal mix is unsustainable.