recession

Another decade, another recession … but this one’s different

April 14, 2020April 14, 2020Richard RamseyLeave a comment

When US Presidents, UK Prime Ministers and other leaders in politics and business take charge, the first 100 days of their leadership is always seen as critical. Last Thursday marked 100 days since the first case of COVID-19 was reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO) at the start of January. The scale of the change, political intervention and business disruption that we have seen since then has been truly unprecedented. And what happens in the next 100 days will likely be just as alarming and unprecedented. Indeed, the word unprecedented is now so overused that it no longer does justice to just how rare and extreme events have been.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Narrow miss

November 18, 2019November 18, 2019Richard RamseyLeave a comment

Both Germany and the UK escaped recession, figures last week showed. But both have reason to be concerned about their near-term outlook. UK election campaigning suggests either a (i) large or (ii) enormous dollop of government spending is coming. Germany could do with either.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Waiting for the good news

September 2, 2019Richard RamseyLeave a comment

All eyes were on political theatre in Westminster last week. No-deal Brexit looks more likely. And with it some economic disruption – how much is unknown. The global economic outlook is not promising: the US and China are still locked in the trade war and the Eurozone is fighting to stave off a recession.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Divergence

May 23, 2016May 25, 2016Richard RamseyLeave a comment

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A deluge of inflation data and speeches from central bankers put monetary policy in the spotlight last week. Whilst the US is talking up the chances of it raising rates this Summer, at least one of the UK’s rate setters is seriously considering voting to cut rates later this year.

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Economic Gongs: Best actors in an increasingly unpopular drama

March 1, 2016March 1, 2016Richard RamseyLeave a comment

There is an increasingly unpopular drama unfolding in the global economy. It’s not quite the epic of 2007/8. But it certainly has economists and investors gripped, as we have witnessed the Big Short on oil prices and a Revenant-style bear market that has mauled the share prices of the stock markets’ biggest stars. Continue reading →

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Hard Work

February 22, 2016February 22, 2016Richard RamseyLeave a comment

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We’re all at risk of robots stealing our jobs, or so futurologists are fond of saying. For now though the UK is creating plenty of jobs for humans. The problem remains woeful productivity and weak wage growth.

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NI heading for recession?

September 18, 2015September 18, 2015Richard Ramsey1 Comment

In the first episode of #TalkingEconomix, leading economists Richard Ramsey and John Simpson shoot the breeze on the Northern Ireland economy. They cover issues including why Northern Ireland may be heading for recession, why the economy is under-performing, and why Northern Ireland’s low tax, high spend fiscal mix is unsustainable.