Today’s labour market statistics reveal more positive headlines, particularly in relation to unemployment. The headline ILO unemployment rate eased to 3.8% in the three months to November – its lowest rate since August 2007, and moving closer towards the all-time-low of 3.2% (July 2007). Continue reading
A New Year so an opportune time to do a bit of a stocktake. In this extended brief we take a look back at 2017 and ahead to 2018.
This is an important week for understanding what has been going on within the Northern Ireland economy. We had four surveys released yesterday by NISRA – two on the labour market and two on private sector output. Within them, there was a variety of highs and lows, some of which are positive and some of which are concerning. For the labour market, the two key releases were the monthly Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES). The latter is the most closely watched survey of the number of jobs in the economy. Meanwhile the other two surveys shed light on private sector output in the third quarter. These were the Index of Services and the Index of Production (industrial production / manufacturing output). So what do they tell us about the local economy? Continue reading
Last week’s data suggests inflation’s recent run-up could very well be peaking. That would be welcome. The less good news was a rare decline in the number of people in work. Here’s hoping that’s just a blip. Continue reading
As far as positive headlines are concerned, Northern Ireland’s labour market statistics have been a source of rich pickings over the last 18 months. Once again today’s batch of data raises an eyebrow or two. Chief amongst these is the fall in the ILO unemployment rate – to 4.0% in Q3. This represents the lowest unemployment rate since Q2 2008 and compares with a record low of 3.2% in the summer of 2007. Continue reading
Depending on what statistics you look at, Northern Ireland’s labour market has either taken a turn for the better or a turn for the worse. Continue reading
These slides provide an update on the latest figures for the Northern Ireland economy.
With unemployment at a 40-year low, wages should be rising at roughly twice their current pace. That they are not reflects rising supply, a shift to self-employment, less job switching than usual and, above all, stagnant productivity. It can also stump central banks used to the conventional relationship between work and pay. Continue reading
A raft of data emerged from the Department for the Economy today. The most significant release was the Quarterly Employee Survey (QES) for Q2 2017 -a comprehensive survey of the actual number of jobs in the economy. This is more closely watched than the Labour Force Survey which looks at people working in some shape or form (paid, unpaid, self-employed, voluntary etc). Continue reading
Perhaps the most difficult job of at all at present is predicting what’s going to happen with the labour market, given the uncertainty that exists in the economy, particularly in relation to Brexit. But it’s worth analysing the available data to understand what’s happening in the jobs market and where we might be going. Continue reading