The latest data download from NISRA represents the most positive set of labour market statistics since the pandemic arrived. All the key indicators moved in the right direction. Unemployment and economic inactivity rates fell in the three months to April relative to the previous quarter. Meanwhile the number of Northern Ireland employees on payrolls, hours worked and the employment rate all increased. Perhaps the only fly in the ointment was self-employment fell to a 19-year low and there was a pick-up in proposed redundancies in the first half of June albeit from very low levels. Today’s labour market statistics coupled with the recent Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI surveys for April and May signal that the local jobs recovery has moved up a number of gears in the second quarter. Indeed, May’s PMI posted the joint-fastest rise in private sector staffing levels in the survey’s nineteen year history.
An easing of lockdown restrictions has facilitated a significant rebound in economic activity and employment. The successful and rapid rollout of vaccines also effectively ensures that the severe lockdowns of the past will not be required in the near future. However, it is important not to get carried away. This stage of the economic recovery was always going to lead to the strongest rates of growth and pick-up in hiring. Indeed the HMRC payrolls data may reveal a return to pre-pandemic employee levels as soon as next month.
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