About 25 years ago, The Queen popularised the term annus horribilis. At the other end of the spectrum, the term annus mirabilis translates to ‘wonderful year’ or ‘year of miracles’. 2016 was a year to which you could perhaps attach either moniker, depending on what perspective you take. And some might argue that it was actually somewhere in between. Continue reading
Last year was a year of many surprises – Brexit, Trump, Leicester winning the English Premier League, and Ireland beating the All-Blacks in rugby are just some examples that come to mind. The Northern Ireland economy also enjoyed an unexpectedly positive year in 2016, with many record-breaking performances, including in the labour market. But the turnaround in the fortunes of the agriculture sector is perhaps even more startling. Continue reading
Whether it’s booming car sales or rising job satisfaction the data says the UK is in a good place. Or maybe that’s the after effects of a sunny weekend…
Service charge. Nine months on from the EU referendum result, the UK’s service sector hasn’t lost its mojo. According to the March PMI the sector notched up its fastest rate of growth for the year with an overall score of 55, up from February’s 53.3. Firms remain very optimistic for the future but inflationary pressures remain a concern. Input cost inflation eased last month relative to February’s near 8-1/2 year peak but still remain high. Passing these costs on to customers through higher charges remains a priority, sharpening the focus on this week’s inflation data. Continue reading
Northern Ireland’s tourism industry has been breaking records across a range of performance indicators in recent years. 2016 witnessed a hotel room boom and this trend looks set to continue in 2017. Last year the local hotelier industry breached the 2 million mark for room sales for the first time.
Sterling is down 12% since the referendum and some effects of its decline are becoming apparent.
Pipeline pressures. Sterling’s weakness has fuelled import cost inflation. Manufacturers’ raw material costs rose by 19% y/y in February and firms have been passing some of these costs on to customers. Back in June factory gate prices were falling on an annual basis. Subsequently, output price growth has accelerated in every single month. Last month they were up 3.7% y/y the largest increase since December 2011. Price rises were evident across all product categories from food to fuel. Consumers have been warned. Further price rises are coming. Continue reading
We’ve all heard the oft-used phrase ‘the economy is the number one priority’. However, there is perhaps still a deficit in terms of public understanding of economic issues. People perhaps don’t realise how far Northern Ireland lags the rest of the UK in terms of GVA (and the gap has been widening) or how much more Northern Ireland receives in public spending. Continue reading
As we approach the 10th anniversary of Northern Ireland’s house price peak (and subsequent correction), we’ve been seeing some encouraging signs in the housing market across a range of indicators. Despite the ongoing recovery over the last few years, though, it is fair to say that this does not mean we are ‘recovered’. Indeed, ‘a recovery’ in house prices / house building back to the freak peaks of 2006/2007 is neither expected nor viewed as desirable. Continue reading
It had everything. There was intrigue, espionage, breakups, non-stop drama, and no end of fiction and fantasy. But whether you regard last year as the prelude to an economic horror, or something from an altogether more uplifting genre, what is clear is that 2016 was an epic, with significant implications for the local, national, and global economies. So with the annual Academy Awards having just been handed out, we’ve decided to suggest some potential winners of a hypothetical Economic Gongs. Here are the economies, personalities and organisations we think should be in contention for a range of bespoke categories.
This year will mark the tenth anniversary of Northern Ireland’s house price peak which heralded the start of a sustained period of collateral damage for the wider economy and not just the housing market. Residential property prices peaked in Q3 2007 and subsequently troughed in Q1 2013, down a whopping 57% some 5½ years later. Since then the housing market has been in recovery mode with three successive years of house price growth. For many homeowners the last ten years has represented a lost decade with aspirations blighted by negative equity. However, the combination of house price growth and time (assuming repayments) has seen the incidence of negative equity recede.
Today sees the release of January data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by Markit – pointed to a positive start to 2017, with further increases in output, new orders and employment recorded. That said, rates ofexpansion eased from the end of last year. Meanwhile, price pressures continued to intensify, with rates of inflation for both input costs and output prices among the sharpest in the survey’s history.