Cure required for ‘fiscal hangxiety’? Hair of the dog or cold turkey?

It could be said that the global economy at present is characterised by ‘financial hangxiety’. Anyone who has been to a late spring / early summer barbecue and suffered from the after-effects of beer, wine or aperol spritz the next morning, and the dread of the working week that lies ahead, will probably know what hangxiety is. With the financial version, consumers are experiencing the effects of rising food and utility bills and resulting nervousness about the state of their household finances going forward. This is particularly true for those mortgage holders due to see a surge in their mortgage payments in the coming months and years.

Continue reading

NI’s space cadets look to the future

Northern Ireland sometimes gets characterised as a naval-gazing backwater, where overly conservative views and inward-looking discussions dominate. But whilst we have to acknowledge that there is some truth in this, I don’t think we always get enough credit for the many things from here that are out of this world. Recently, NI’s creative talent was on display at both the Superbowl and the BAFTAs, and is set to be showcased in Hollywood soon as well. Many companies from here are high achievers on a global scale too, and on the sporting front, the Irish Rugby team is currently world number one. It’s also encouraging that NI PLC is looking to the stars as well, with the UK Space Conference coming to Belfast later this year.

Continue reading

Living in electric dreams

2022 was the year in which energy prices soared, and as we came into the new year, there were fears of energy shortages or even the lights going out due to blackouts. As we move further into 2023, energy prices are still very much on our minds, but people will be hoping the lights will go back on at Stormont to help deal with challenges that households, businesses, the public sector and society as a whole face this year.

Bulb and shape of home on wooden background
Continue reading

New Car Sales Hit a 3-Year High But Remain Stuck In The Slow Lane

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine last February, the general direction of travel for the UK and Northern Ireland economies has been down. Consumer confidence has plunged in the wake of rocketing inflation and the evolving cost-of-living crisis. Despite this deteriorating consumer outlook, new car sales ended the year on a high – at least in relative terms. The improvement in new car sales largely reflects an easing in the supply-chain disruption that has blighted global car manufacturers since the pandemic struck. Consumer sentiment and confidence in supply-chains (shorter-delivery times) are moving in opposite directions. The steady increase in new car sales in recent months is largely linked to fulfilling orders made in Q3 and Q4 2021. Back then the cost-of-living crisis had barely begun and interest rates were still plumbing record lows. In short, consumer confidence was robust.

Continue reading

A selection box of data – both good and bad

The latest NI data dump from NISRA suggests that the local economy has dodged a technical recession (i.e. two successive quarters of contraction) due to marginal growth in the most recent quarter. This was perhaps unexpected. But output edging above the contraction mark rather than below it will be of little consolation to, or consequence for, households across NI struggling to pay heating, electricity and food bills. 

Continue reading

2023 to be as unpalatable as a Bushtucker Trial

This week, many will be raising a glass to the festive season as we enter the peak time for Christmas parties. But the Bank of England will be playing party pooper by raising interest rates again on Thursday for the nineth consecutive meeting. And overall, for those looking something to celebrate, the positives in the economy – locally, nationally and globally – seem to be in short supply. 

Continue reading

Car sales recovery but hazardous driving conditions ahead

Prior to the pandemic, new car sales used to be a useful and timely barometer of consumer confidence. But the supply chain disruption following Covid-19 and the Ukraine-Russia war ended that. The latest month’s new car sales are, in many cases, a reflection of consumer demand and confidence prevailing in the summer of 2021. The reality of consumer confidence today is severely dampened by the omnipresent cost-of-living crisis and higher interest rates. 

Continue reading

Coming back down to earth but into a different world

If we look at the last 14 years, the reality is that we have been in a bubble that has sent many things such as global property and equity prices to stratospheric levels. This bubble was created by extremely low interest rates and was pumped up further by other central bank actions including quantitative easing (QE). But now the bubble is deflating fast as interest rates rise due to soaring inflation, and we’re experiencing an extremely bumpy re-entry as we come back down to earth. But whilst we’re re-entering the higher interest rate environment of old, it is a manifestly different world.

Continue reading

The kindness of strangers is wearing thin

‘Taking back control’ has gone down as one of the most effective political slogans of all time. But turning that slogan into reality has proven to be much more difficult. The UK left the EU but doing so hasn’t brought the kind of sovereignty advantages Brexiteers had envisaged. Outside the EU, the UK’s destiny is still very much tied to forces beyond Westminster. What has become very clear in recent months is that the fate of countries like the UK is closely tied to the markets and that the markets will reward or punish you in equal measure depending on how you behave. 

Continue reading