Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Ratcheting up

US/China trade tensions are intensifying. The Chinese authorities announced $75bn 5-10% tariffs on US imports, targeting cars, oil and soya. US President Trump retaliated, unveiling further tariff rises though his stance at the latest G7 meeting was conciliatory. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell hinted at another rate cut soon.

ratchet-3500129_1920.jpg Continue reading

Subsidising by numbers

Imagine you are a Dragons’ Den judge. The CEO of (a fictional) ‘Grey Enterprises’ is pitching for investment to enable further expansion in its consumer goods business. The firm’s customer base (the over 65s) has grown by one-quarter over the last decade with 1 in 6 of the Northern Ireland population using the product.

AdobeStock_242998345.jpeg Continue reading

Have consumers priced in Brexit?

There is an annual cycle in consumer finances. January, February and March are generally lean months for spending as wallets and purses recover from Christmas. The second quarter of the year sees preparation for the holidays, before a post-summer recovery. Spending then accelerates again, due to the end of year festivities, before the cycle repeats.

AdobeStock_160632424 SMALL.jpg Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Cliff edge deferred

welder-673559_1920
The EU granted PM Theresa May an extension to Brexit to May 22nd, conditional on Parliament passing the Withdrawal Agreement – a dim prospect. Another rejection would mean the Commons is given up to April 12th  to propose alternatives. The indicative votes this week might offer some clues on what alternatives Parliament could support.

Continue reading

Last orders for record labour market highs?

Labour market stats Q42018

The labour market continues to be a source of positivity amidst the Brexit gloom. Northern Ireland’s employment rate – the proportion of people of 16-64 year olds working – hit a record high of 70.9%. Meanwhile the headline unemployment rate in the three-months to January 2019 is an eye-catching 3.5%. However, amongst the raft of labour market statistics the most meaningful jobs barometer was the Quarterly Employment Survey for Q4 2018. Continue reading

Weekly Brief – Concession

Theresa May conceded for the first time Parliament would be given a vote on extending Article 50, or a no deal Brexit if the PM’s “meaningful vote” on March 12th is rejected. The betting markets cut the chances of a no deal exit at the end of March in response and EU figures indicated that some form of delay was inevitable. Meanwhile, MPs grilled the BoE on what it would do in the event of a no-deal.

london-2393098_1920.jpg Continue reading