There is an annual cycle in consumer finances. January, February and March are generally lean months for spending as wallets and purses recover from Christmas. The second quarter of the year sees preparation for the holidays, before a post-summer recovery. Spending then accelerates again, due to the end of year festivities, before the cycle repeats.
The labour market continues to be a source of positivity amidst the Brexit gloom. Northern Ireland’s employment rate – the proportion of people of 16-64 year olds working – hit a record high of 70.9%. Meanwhile the headline unemployment rate in the three-months to January 2019 is an eye-catching 3.5%. However, amongst the raft of labour market statistics the most meaningful jobs barometer was the Quarterly Employment Survey for Q4 2018. Continue reading
Theresa May conceded for the first time Parliament would be given a vote on extending Article 50, or a no deal Brexit if the PM’s “meaningful vote” on March 12th is rejected. The betting markets cut the chances of a no deal exit at the end of March in response and EU figures indicated that some form of delay was inevitable. Meanwhile, MPs grilled the BoE on what it would do in the event of a no-deal.
During the three months to November 2018, Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. This compared with 4.1% in the previous quarter and was close to the record low of 3.1% posted in the Q1 2018. Continue reading
New car sales hit a 5-year low in 2018 signalling a bad year for the motor industry, or was it? Once again this headline conceals contrasting fortunes for different brands and models. Whatever the economic weather there are always winners and losers.
In many ways, yesterday’s budget could be summarised as spend now, tax later.
To listen to consumers and the media, you would think that price is all that matters. Whether it’s house prices, holidays, the latest bargains, mobile phone contracts or even the price of a pint of beer, all people seem to focus on is the cost. And in many cases, price is indeed key. Think back to when chocolate bar companies shrunk their products rather than raise their prices, or how big a deal some retailers make out of their Boxing Day Sales and Black Friday deals. However, price isn’t always all that matters for consumers. Price, and what we’re prepared to pay, it turns out, is a complex thing.
The latest NIJobs.com Jobs Report with Ulster Bank was published this week. It shows that the jobs market remains busy, driven by continued inward investment as well as recritment in other areas. Continue reading
The squeeze on living standards hasn’t gone away
In recent months an emerging narrative has been that the squeeze on UK living standards has relaxed or even ended. This refers to the pace of annual earnings growth overtaking inflation. However, real earnings growth remains modest at best. Meanwhile the squeeze continues for public sector workers on pay caps (1% p.a.) and households experiencing a multi-year freeze on working-age welfare benefits (until 2020). In light of the fact that the price of necessities including utility bills, motoring costs, rates bills and private sector rents (for Northern Ireland) are all rising at substantial rates and above the headline rate of inflation, it is premature to talk of a meaningful end to the cost of living squeeze. Continue reading