Today sees the release of April data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI^®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by S&P Global – indicated that growth was sustained in the Northern Ireland private sector, with activity up for the third month running. Employment continued to rise markedly as a result. Meanwhile, rates of both input cost and output price inflation softened again and suppliers’ delivery times shortened.

Northern Ireland’s private sector started the second quarter in the same way that it ended the first with businesses in expansion mode. Output, orders and employment all increased in April albeit the pace of growth eased relative to March. This was particularly marked with new orders as falling demand amongst manufacturers and construction firms largely offset growth within retail and services. Manufacturing was the only sector to post a decline in output in April with construction finally recording a rise in activity for the first time in 14 months. 

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The trend of easing inflationary pressures continued last month with input costs rising at the weakest pace in almost two-and-a-half years. Services firms have recorded the steepest rise in cost pressures in each of the last five months. Despite robust rates of wage inflation, all sectors continued to increase their staffing levels in April. Retailers led the way in the recruitment drive, but construction firms posted a record rise in staffing levels. This would appear to suggest the softer demand in the sector is enabling longstanding vacancies to finally be filled.

Supply chain disruption has blighted the economy since the pandemic first hit. But April’s survey revealed that firms saw supplier delivery times shorten for the first time since the question was introduced back in March 2021.

Overall, the steady improvement in the private sector is in stark contrast with the mounting difficulties within the public sector. Budget cuts and a scaling back of public services will also have implications for parts of the private sector too. Meanwhile the headwinds of higher interest rates and increased taxation will increasingly be felt by all parts of the economy in the year ahead.

The main findings of the April survey were as follows:

• The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 53.1 in April, down from 54.9 in March but still signalling a solid monthly increase in business activity at companies in Northern Ireland.
• Output has now risen in three successive months. Activity increased in the services, construction and retail sectors, but dipped in manufacturing.
• Output growth was often linked to higher new orders, which also increased for the third month running. That said, the rate of expansion eased and was only marginal.
• Rising new orders also encouraged firms to expand employment again, with some companies increasing staffing levels to try and work through outstanding business. 
• Staffing levels continued to rise sharply. While higher wages and energy prices continued to push up input costs in April, the rate of inflation softened for the seventh consecutive month and was the weakest in close to two-and-a-half years. Similarly, the pace of increase in selling prices was the least pronounced since December 2020.
• For the first time since the question on suppliers’ delivery times was added to the survey in March 2021, vendor performance improved in April. Companies remained optimistic that output will continue to rise over the coming year, with confidence supported by improvements in new orders.

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Today sees the release of March data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI^®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by S&P Global – pointed to growth gaining momentum in the Northern Ireland private sector. Output, new orders and employment all increased at sharper rates. Meanwhile, rates of inflation in both input costs and output prices continued to ease.

Momentum in the local economy continued to build at the end of the first quarter. February’s report was summed up in the word ‘improvement’ and March was something of a rerun of this, with almost every indicator improving further on the previous month. Business activity accelerated at its fastest pace in a year, with only London recording a sharper rate of growth. New orders posted their steepest rate of expansion in a year as well. 

Construction was the only NI sector not in expansion mode in March. Lack of a Stormont Executive and a paralysis in decision-making is being felt and will continue to be felt in this sector. This is reflected in the new orders indicator which has indicated declines for 21 months running. In the latest report, construction was the only sector not to see new orders growing, in fact recording a marked fall.

One of the few bright spots for construction is employment, with headcounts growing as firms fill vacancies that they perhaps were unable to fill when the labour market was tighter. Indeed, employment was strong across all sectors, growing at the joint fastest pace on record and one that exceeded all other UK regions.

Inflationary pressures continued to ease in March and were at their weakest pace in over two years. But the pace of cost and price rises was still above the pre-pandemic long-term average. Another encouraging sign is that supplier delivery times for retail, manufacturing and construction shortened in March reflecting that global supply chains are returning to some kind of normality.

Whilst we are seeing notable short-term improvements, and firms are relatively optimistic for the year ahead, there are lots of challenges that will impact on future growth. The slowdown in the global economy is one factor, but the outlook for the public finances is also bleak and this is compounded by the ongoing lack of a functioning Stormont Executive. Meanwhile, households will continue to battle with a cost-of-living crisis.”

The main findings of the March survey were as follows:

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose to 54.9 in March from 52.2 in February. The reading indicated a sharper expansion in output in the private sector, and one that was the fastest for a year. In fact, the rise in Northern Ireland was the second-sharpest of the 12 monitored areas of the UK, behind only London. Panellists reported that higher sales amid improvements in customer confidence and demand had been behind the increase in output. Growth was seen in three of the four monitored sectors, the exception being construction. Retail posted the fastest increase.

Total new orders also expanded at the fastest pace for a year in March, while new export orders ticked higher for a second month running. Firms ramped up hiring in March, in response to higher new orders, a solid build-up in backlogs of work and confidence in the outlook. Moreover, the rate of job creation was the joint-fastest in the survey’s history, and the latest increase was the fastest seen across all of the UK areas covered.

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Today sees the release of February data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI^®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by S&P Global – signalled a return to growth in February, with both output and new orders increasing amid signs of demand improving. As such, business confidence strengthened and employment growth quickened. Meanwhile, price and supply pressures continued to ease.

The latest PMI survey could be summed up in one word – improvement. All ten indicators of local business conditions improved in February relative to the previous month. Private sector firms reported their first rise in output and new orders in 10 months. A notable improvement in the economic conditions within Northern Ireland’s export markets helped lift export orders in February following four years of continuous decline.

The recovery in international demand aided a return to growth in output and orders for manufacturers. Meanwhile, retail’s recent resurgence continued. The completed rollout of the £600 energy grant, coupled with cross-border shoppers from the Republic of Ireland, continues to provide a boost for the retail sector. Conversely, construction and services posted a further fall in output last month. 

Firms continue to recruit with all four sectors increasing their staffing levels in February. Overall, employment rose at its fastest pace in 15 months with Northern Ireland outperforming the other 11 regions in the UK. Inflationary pressures continued to ease with both input cost and output price inflation falling to 25-month lows. 

Finally, it was encouraging to see a surge in optimism last month across all four surveyed sectors. Expectations for output in 12 months’ time hit a 12-month high which represents the highest level of confidence since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This latest improvement occurred ahead of the unveiling of The Windsor Framework, so we may see further rises in sentiment in the coming months if it is accepted more universally than the NI Protocol was. Time will tell.

The main findings of the February survey were as follows:

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 52.2 in February, moving back above the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time in ten months following a reading of 45.3 in January. Output increased modestly amid an increase in new orders and signs of demand improving. The manufacturing and retail sectors posted rises in activity, while services and construction remained in decline. New orders, meanwhile, increased for the first time in ten months. New export orders also returned to growth, a marked turnaround following a sharp decline in January. 

In line with the renewed increase in new orders, companies cited a marginal accumulation in backlogs of work, the first since April 2022. Higher new orders also boosted business confidence, which reached a one-year high. With workloads and confidence improving, companies expanded their staffing levels at a solid pace, with the rate of job creation quickening to the highest in 15 months.

Input prices continued to rise sharply on the back of higher costs for energy, transportation and wages, but the rate of inflation was at a 25-month low. The same was true of output price inflation. Meanwhile, suppliers’ delivery times lengthened to the least extent in the two-year series history.

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DECEMBER PMI: Today sees the release of December data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI^®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by S&P Global – pointed to a difficult end to 2022 as new orders fell sharply again and the rate of decline in output accelerated. Employment was unchanged, following 21 months of job creation. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures moderated.

Northern Ireland’s private sector started last year in expansion mode as the post-pandemic economic recovery gathered pace. Last January, businesses were optimistic for the year ahead with the expectation that growth would continue. This proved not to be the case. Largely as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which added fuel to the cost-of-living crisis, growth petered out and confidence ebbed away. Northern Ireland’s private sector therefore ended the year on a much more negative note. December saw output and orders fall for the eighth successive month. The contraction in output was the steepest in a decade outside of lockdowns. All four sectors posted declines in output and orders although retail, services and construction firms did increase their staffing levels. The good news is that inflationary pressures moderated with firms reporting the weakest rise in input costs in 22 months. As a result, firms raised their prices at their slowest pace in almost two years. But these price rises still exceed anything that occurred in the pre-pandemic era. This time last year, firms were braced for a challenging year, but it turned out much worse than anticipated. December’s report suggests that negative sentiment is receding and that we may have passed peak pessimism. This year, expectations for the 12-months ahead are low but we could see the converse of last year with expectations being exceeded this time around.

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The main findings of the December survey were as follows:

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index fell sharply to 41.6 in December from 46.0 in November, pointing to a much faster reduction in output in the private sector at the end of 2022. In fact, the decline was the steepest since February 2021. The cost of living crisis was reportedly a key factor behind the drop in activity as new orders continued to fall sharply. Activity decreased across all four broad sectors covered by the survey, with the fastest reduction in construction.

Employment was unchanged in December, thereby ending a 21-month sequence of job creation. While some firms were able to expand their staffing levels, others reported voluntary resignations and difficulties recruiting. There were further signs of inflationary pressures moderating in December, with both input costs and output prices rising at the slowest rates since early-2021. That said, prices continued to increase rapidly. Where input costs were up, panellists mentioned higher costs for energy and transportation. Suppliers’ delivery times continued to lengthen, with delays linked to Brexit and postal strikes. Although companies remained downbeat on the prospects for output growth during 2023 due to the cost of living crisis and political uncertainty, sentiment improved to an eight-month high.

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Today sees the release of November data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI^®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by S&P Global – showed that inflationary pressures and a wider economic slowdown led to further reductions in output and new orders in the Northern Ireland private sector. There were further signs, however, of inflation softening as both input costs and selling prices rose at the weakest rates in 21 months.

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Today sees the release of September data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI^®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by S&P Global – saw the third quarter of 2022 end with the Northern Ireland private sector remaining deep inside contraction territory. Rates of decline in output and new orders quickened and while employment continued to rise the latest round of job creation was only marginal.

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Today sees the release of June data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI^®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by S&P Global – signalled that output and new orders both fell sharply as severe price pressures caused demand to contract. Business confidence also waned, but companies continued to expand their staffing levels.

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