Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – BoE bucks the trend

The BoE’s latest Inflation Report downgraded its growth forecasts but continues to predict “gradual” UK rate hikes assuming a smooth Brexit. In contrast, the Federal Reserve lowered the funds rate 0.25% to 2.25%, its first reduction since 2008. US president Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff increase on the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports and China’s retaliation adds to global trade concerns, increasing the pressure for further Fed moves soon.

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Northern Ireland Economic Output hits a ten-and-a-half-year high

The latest Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index confirmed that the local economy notched up its sixth successive quarter of growth in Q1 2019. The 0.3% q/q rise marked an improvement on Q4 2018’s lacklustre growth rate of just 0.1%. While the rate of growth in the latest quarter was perhaps stronger than expected, it still represents a rather weak rate of expansion. Meanwhile the annual rate of growth slowed from 1.8% y/y in Q4 to 1.5% in Q1 2019.

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House prices continue to rise but activity on the turn?

Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index Comment

Northern Ireland’s housing market has been a source of continued positivity in recent years, with housebuilding, prices, transactions and mortgage activity all at multi-year highs.  Though the property market remains in recovery mode, rather than recovered, following the biggest residential property downturn in UK history.

Residential property price growth has been slowing in both the UK and Republic of Ireland markets. The latest Residential Property Price Index for Northern Ireland points to a similar trend. Residential property prices posted their first quarterly fall in two years in Q1 2019 with a 1.0% decline.  Annual house price growth eased from 5.1% in Q4 2018 to a more sustainable 3.5% in Q1 2019 – a rate that remains above consumer price inflation and broadly in line with average earnings growth. Lower rates of house price inflation (2-3% p.a.) are to be welcomed.

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