The US economy is humming and wage pressures are building, keeping the Fed on track for another modest tightening in September. UK growth, however, remains lacklustre with manufacturing in the doldrums. A BoE rate hike appears a distant prospect.
UK businesses appear in decent shape. Turnover is up as are Corporation Tax receipts. Yet sterling has lost roughly one-tenth of its value since June and that’s raising input costs and squeezing profits. A long summer of falling costs boosting profits is coming to an end. Continue reading
Initial signals of the economic fallout post-Brexit vote are weak. That’s weak in both hard to detect as well as hinting at economic fragility. It’s early days but initial signs suggest a sudden shock to business and consumer confidence as well as consumer spending. If true, the next question is, how persistent?