UK growth has picked up a bit of speed in Q3, judging from latest monthly GDP figures, with strength widespread. However, recent favourable weather flattered the headline rate, so a moderation in growth looks likely in Q4.
As expected the BoE kept its powder dry following August’s rate hike. Meanwhile, the ECB remains on course to halt QE by year-end but tame inflation suggests a rate hike is some way off. In contrast, the Fed looks odds on to tighten policy further later this month.
UK growth rebounded in Q2, but outlook is clouded
The MPC voted unanimously to raise interest rates and the Fed looks like it is warming up for more of the same
The economic data is hinting at an impact from trade tensions. But it’s very modest, so far at least
An upbeat speech from Bank of England governor Mark Carney shortens the odds of an August rate hike
Some crumbs of comfort for the UK economy, but the outlook remains uncertain
Pressure eases on public finances, but not enough to finance a big Birthday gift without recourse to higher taxes.
Big, expensive, marred by controversy and inherently political. No, not the World Cup. QE. And the final whistle for this extraordinary period for monetary policy is approaching. At least for this round. And there’s always the chance of extra time.
A reversal of fortune in the service sector should hail a return to business as usual for the UK economy.