Q2 GDP fell off a cliff. Yet months of shocking headlines has made record declines feel somewhat “normal”. They’re not. What is creating a stir is the rising number of hotspots locally as well as globally. The battle with the virus is going to be long, drawn out, and fraught with unpalatable trade-offs, especially between lives and livelihood.
Both the UK and the Euro area PMIs rebounded strongly in July. And, in a historic moment, the members of the Euro area finally agreed on the recovery fund, widely touted as the first step towards a limited fiscal union. But US indicators painted a more sobering picture, like a mirror to the world, revealing how things could stall if the virus spread intensifies.
The US economy had been sprinting into the lead, as key indicators for May and June recovered much of the pandemic imposed losses. But at a huge cost – the second wave will leave behind a weaker than earlier projected Q3. The UK’s disappointing May GDP data signalled a modest initial recovery. Welcome to the world of slow healing.
The rolling back of restriction means trips to the pub and holidays are back on the agenda. But things can change, and rather quickly. Localized flare-ups in the US have resulted in reimposition of lockdown measures. Leicester is a story closer home. The long road to recovery will be a very bumpy one.
After record declines the PMI surveys for June suggests that a rebound is underway. But then this was expected. And doesn’t alter the outlook of a long and uncertain recovery. The chances of substantial job losses and preventing a flare-up in infections as the economy open up will be among the key challenges. Look no further than the US which has already seen some of the states reimpose restrictions as the second wave continues to intensify.
Last week was a bit of a reality check – the largest ever monthly drop in the UK GDP, signs of a second wave in the southern US and a bout of market volatility. At least numerous indicators point towards a bottoming out of economic activity across much of the world. The road ahead has opened up for a run at a recovery.
Last week, several economies reopened without a material evidence of a spike in infection rates, well, so far. That said, the northern-southern hemisphere divide in the number of cases continues to widen, leading some (incl. the Fed) to believe that there might be a second wave. Two risks resurfaced – escalation of US-China trade tensions and disruptive Brexit. On the activity front, data for May suggests that the worst might be behind us.
The easing of lockdown restrictions, and with it the economic recovery, looks set to be taken tentative step by tentative step. Witness South Korea having to reintroduce some distancing measures. Meanwhile data is putting more colour on the enormous scale of the economic damage. No surprise that the Bank of England is envisaging the worst downturn since 1706. Even worse than the “Great Frost” of 1709.
April has been a month of contrasts. Multi-year low prints on economic activity in both the US and the Euro area, with worse to come, on the one hand. While equity markets continued to push higher from their late-march lows, buoyed by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus. Markets will always run ahead of the economy. The question is, with so much uncertainty on the pace of recovery, have they overdone it?
A negative oil price, pint-sized PMIs and spiralling government spending all point towards a new world order. And while the accuracy of survey-based indicators has diminished, consumer demand has clearly collapsed and firms are going out of business. Although the governments have been swift to act, it doesn’t come without a price.
