The incoming labour market data is continuing to catch-up with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is increasingly evident in some of the data sets more than others.Continue reading
The labour market continues to be a source of positivity amidst the Brexit gloom. Northern Ireland’s employment rate – the proportion of people of 16-64 year olds working – hit a record high of 70.9%. Meanwhile the headline unemployment rate in the three-months to January 2019 is an eye-catching 3.5%. However, amongst the raft of labour market statistics the most meaningful jobs barometer was the Quarterly Employment Survey for Q4 2018. Continue reading
During the three months to November 2018, Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. This compared with 4.1% in the previous quarter and was close to the record low of 3.1% posted in the Q1 2018. Continue reading
To listen to consumers and the media, you would think that price is all that matters. Whether it’s house prices, holidays, the latest bargains, mobile phone contracts or even the price of a pint of beer, all people seem to focus on is the cost. And in many cases, price is indeed key. Think back to when chocolate bar companies shrunk their products rather than raise their prices, or how big a deal some retailers make out of their Boxing Day Sales and Black Friday deals. However, price isn’t always all that matters for consumers. Price, and what we’re prepared to pay, it turns out, is a complex thing.
Today’s labour market statistics reveal more positive headlines, particularly in relation to unemployment. The headline ILO unemployment rate eased to 3.8% in the three months to November – its lowest rate since August 2007, and moving closer towards the all-time-low of 3.2% (July 2007). Continue reading
Robust growth, according to PMI – The last few days has seen a flurry of surveys released on the health of the Northern Ireland economy. Ulster Bank’s PMI pointed to robust growth across the private sector in Q4 2017. The Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce & Industry’s Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) for the same period was not quite as positive as the PMI. Nevertheless, both manufacturing and services firms reported growth in the final quarter of 2017. Overall, the performance was more encouraging for the manufacturing sector than for services firms. Continue reading
Today’s Budget speech may not have been the most exciting ever, but it was possibly the most future-focused. Indeed, Philip Hammond used the word ‘future’ 33 times at the dispatch box this afternoon, and focused heavily on measures relating to, for instance, first time homebuyers, the technology sector, electric cars. In contrast, there was no mention of pensioners and little to appeal directly to that particular demographic. This perhaps marks a new era of more youth-friendly Budgets. Continue reading
The UK housing market is tipped to feature prominently in the Chancellor’s Budget. A range of initiatives are expected to be unveiled, targeted primarily at the younger generation. There are calls for a shift in emphasis from ‘Help to Buy’ to ‘Help to Build’ schemes. It remains to be seen how Northern Ireland will benefit from these. But it’s worth considering how the Northern Ireland housing building sector is currently faring. Continue reading
As far as positive headlines are concerned, Northern Ireland’s labour market statistics have been a source of rich pickings over the last 18 months. Once again today’s batch of data raises an eyebrow or two. Chief amongst these is the fall in the ILO unemployment rate – to 4.0% in Q3. This represents the lowest unemployment rate since Q2 2008 and compares with a record low of 3.2% in the summer of 2007. Continue reading
Northern Ireland retailers have benefited from the tourism boom and a surge in cross-border shoppers. With the latter boosted by the post-EU referendum depreciation in sterling. This provides a veneer of consumer strength driven by visitors. However, the underlying picture is somewhat weaker.
New car sales are a key barometer of consumer confidence and provide a more meaningful indicator of the health of the consumer. Inflation has been outpacing wage growth and this is sapping household disposable incomes. A significant range of welfare benefits are also in the midst of a multi-year freeze. Against this background it is perhaps not surprising that the biggest discretionary spending item after housing, new car sales, are falling.
Showrooms reported their worst October for sales of new cars in five years, with registrations for the first 10months of the year down over 5% y/y.
2017 looks set to see the biggest annual decline since 2011. Local new car sales are over 20% below their peak in 2007.
This compares with the UK where new car sales, though falling, are still 8% above their pre-recession high. 2018 is also expected to be a challenging year for the local consumer with the cost of living squeeze set to tighten its grip.