Richard Ramsey delivered a presentation to ETT NI on Northern Ireland’s economic performance and outlook. You can view his slides here:
Car sales
NI new car sales growth in the slow lane while UK & RoI accelerate
The recent incoming economic indicators (e.g. Ulster Bank PMI, claimant count unemployment) have shown a divergence in the pace of recovery between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This is also evident in the latest new car sales figures.
Car park economics: the attendant is the Governor
This is an extended version of an article appearing today (10th February, 2015) in the Irish News
If you wanted to understand the changes that have been happening in the economy during recent years, the best place to look might not have been in spreadsheets – or even the minutes of Bank of England meetings – but in the local shopping centre car park. What people have been buying to get themselves from A to B – the size, brand, price and country of origin – has been significantly influenced by everything from exchange rates to the price of a barrel of Brent crude. In effect, car park economics has been at work.
NI new car sales figures a blip
For most economies, the most tangible indicator of consumer confidence is new car sales. The latest Northern Ireland new car sales figures for January, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, signalled a decline of almost 5% relative to the corresponding figure a year ago. This compared with annual growth of almost 7% for the UK and 31% for the Republic of Ireland.
Infographic: the economic match-up
Here’s a quick look at how the economies within the countries competing in the rugby this weekend match up.
SMMT car sales
2014 car sales increased by 9% last year and are now at a 7-year high. This follows the 10% increase in 2013. Despite this growth new car sales in Northern Ireland in 2014 were still 17% below their 2007 peak and 12% below 2006 levels. Unlike England, Scotland and Wales, Northern Ireland has still not managed to recoup the lost car sales that stemmed from the downturn. This is largely due to the fact that Northern Ireland experienced a bigger decline in new car sales relative to 2007. It is noted that new car sales in the Republic of Ireland increased by 30% last year. However, the volume of new car sales in the South remains just over half of the level recorded in 2007.
Looking ahead, 2015 is expected to be another strong year for new car dealers with sales expected to rise by around 10% year-on-year. 2015 will represent something of a ‘sweet spot’ for new car dealers with the annual rate of consumer price inflation set to fall to around 0.5%. This would represent the lowest annual rate of CPI inflation since records began in 1989. At the same time, above inflation wage rises are increasingly feeding through which, in turn, will boost consumer spending in an abnormally low inflationary environment. In particular, the fall in oil / petrol prices will effectively provide a significant pay rise for many drivers. As the cost of motoring plummets more consumers will be in a position to buy a new car.