According to the latest SMMT car sales data, the UK and NI new car markets are going at two different speeds. Continue reading
Car sales
Look beyond the economic headlines
If there’s one thing that 2016 has perhaps taught us, it’s that you have to be wary of headlines. When it came to both the EU referendum debate and the US Presidential election, partisan UK and US media organisations often dominated public discourse with overly-simplified headlines that didn’t do justice to complex and nuanced stories. Continue reading
Warning light: 3rd year of new car sales stagnation up ahead
2015 and 2016 have certainly been the year of the consumer. Low or no inflation coupled with notable wage growth and favourable tax changes (e.g. raising the personal allowance income tax threshold) have all boosted disposable incomes. Continue reading
Petrol Head Index
It probably hasn’t been a great year for Jeremy Clarkson. But can the same be said for petrol heads as a whole? Whilst consumers in general have been benefiting from falling food, clothing and energy prices, what has been happening to fuel, car, and auto part costs? With the hotly anticipated new series of Top Gear set to get underway, I thought it would be worth taking a peak under the bonnet.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Headwinds
Markets expect the first rise in Bank Rate in December 2018. And judging from the Inflation Report, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members seem at ease with this. Their reason? Global economic headwinds that are blowing harder than before.
Car Park Economics
In London, they used to have the Cappuccino Index to gauge which areas where on the up and which were on the down – the sudden availability of froth-topped, good quality Italian coffee was seen as a solid indication of an imminent middle-class presence in an area (and therefore an indicator of likely house price rises). The Economist magazine had its Big Mac Index to compare exchange rates – as Big Macs internationally are broadly the same, differing prices in different countries showed the gap in how currencies are valued. For me, a bit of ‘car park economics’ is a very useful way to gauge how the economy has been performing. What people have been buying to get themselves from A to B – the size, brand, price and country of origin – can tell us a lot about everything from the strength of the Korean Won to the price of a barrel of Brent crude.
NI new car sales remain in slow lane
2015 was a good year for household finances, with falling food and energy prices, coupled with a return of pay rises, boosting disposable incomes.
This has led to Northern Ireland experiencing a retail mini-boom of sorts during recent months.
However, local car showrooms appear to have been left out of the party.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief
Structural reform. That’s when governments reform markets – for example to boost competition – and invest in assets, from people to roads. Structural reform delivers faster growth but it offers jam tomorrow. To be sure, the Eurozone needs reform in spades but it needs substantial support today to escape weak growth and high unemployment. It’s a picture not unlike Northern Ireland!
NI consumers yet to buy into recovery
So far, 2015 has been a good year for the household finances. An increasing number of households are receiving pay rises and are enjoying a record low in consumer price inflation, particularly falling food and energy prices.
Furthermore, UK mortgage interest rates hit a record low in June. However, despite this favourable backdrop, it is perhaps somewhat surprising that this has not had a more positive impact on consumer spending.
NI new car sales recorded a modest increase last month
New car sales recorded a modest increase last month relative to the same period last year.
This presents a slightly more encouraging sign of consumer sentiment relative to the first half of the year.