Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Summer soft patch

It’s looking a lot like October all over again. Just as a flurry of US policymakers were talking up the chances of a Fed rate rise later this month, the labour market produces a bad headline and throws it all into doubt. Exactly the same thing happened towards the end of last year when October’s move was postponed till December.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Negativity


Global growth is slowing. The latest PMI survey says that it was at an almost 4-year low in February. The Chinese Authorities have already taken action and the European Central Bank is expected to do more soon. It is perhaps little surprise that  the talk of negative interest rates is spreading to these shores. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief

Structural reform. That’s when governments reform markets – for example to boost competition – and invest in assets, from people to roads. Structural reform delivers faster growth but it offers jam tomorrow. To be sure, the Eurozone needs reform in spades but it needs substantial support today to escape weak growth and high unemployment. It’s a picture not unlike Northern Ireland!

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