It’s usually the time of year when Christmas cheer spreads far and wide. But we seem to be ending 2020 on a mixed note. Growth continues to falter and signs of deeper damage to the economy are surfacing. All our hopes are pinned on the vaccine and that we swerve a Brexit left hook.
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The Bank of England is debating the best way to tackle the UK’s current dose of inflation. But for the central banks of the Eurozone and the US the issue is stubbornly low inflation. Continue reading
Every UK data release is being closely analysed in the post-Brexit world. But it’s still early days. It’ll be a good number of weeks, probably months, before we have a better handle on the impact of the result. Continue reading
It’s looking a lot like October all over again. Just as a flurry of US policymakers were talking up the chances of a Fed rate rise later this month, the labour market produces a bad headline and throws it all into doubt. Exactly the same thing happened towards the end of last year when October’s move was postponed till December.
As we move into Budget week in the UK, both domestic and international data and policy actions paint a mixed picture of the health of the world economy. The wait to see what this means for the public finances is almost over. Continue reading
Global growth is slowing. The latest PMI survey says that it was at an almost 4-year low in February. The Chinese Authorities have already taken action and the European Central Bank is expected to do more soon. It is perhaps little surprise that the talk of negative interest rates is spreading to these shores. Continue reading
2016 may be a leap year, but there’s not much economic leaping going on. While UK growth is decent, US and Euro Area growth is downright weak and in China it is slow enough to warrant further spending by the authorities.
Structural reform. That’s when governments reform markets – for example to boost competition – and invest in assets, from people to roads. Structural reform delivers faster growth but it offers jam tomorrow. To be sure, the Eurozone needs reform in spades but it needs substantial support today to escape weak growth and high unemployment. It’s a picture not unlike Northern Ireland!
