To the tune of Away in a Manger!
The UK is completing
Its sixth year of growth
With consumption the engine
That’s contributed most
Exports disappointed
Investment it grew
While the fabled rebalancing
Failed to come through
It’s eighty-one months now
Since Bank Rate last changed
Just half a per cent is
Where it has remained
Markets’ expectations
Are for more of the same
But lower for longer
Is a credible claim.
While the UK’s been growing
The euro zone lags
With high unemployment
And huge fiscal drags
It’s hard to envisage
Them turning it round
When they don’t have the freedom
We enjoy with the pound.
The US has been growing
At a moderate pace
Unemployment has fallen
To its natural rate
The Fed has responded
By hiking its rates
It was neither too little
Nor was it too late.
For many a year, now
Growth of global demand
Has depended on China
And those Five Year Plans
Its modest consumption
And large capital stocks
Mean weak assets prices
And growth prospects blocked.
Corporation tax on the agenda
As we move into 2016
Whether it actually happens
That remains to be seen
Meanwhile manufacturers are struggling
Energy costs getting the blame
Living wage won’t be helpful
Exchange rates the same
Northern Ireland house prices
Continue to leap
But they still remain
48% below peak
We’re starting to see movement
In house building too
And when supply increases
Price growth should start to cool
Supply and demand lie
Behind the great tale
Of precipitous falls in
The price of oil
Shale costs are still falling
Consumption is weak
Good news for us buyers
For producers it’s bleak.
We’re looking ahead now
To the start of a year
We expect to deliver
Just a little less cheer
While things here at home
Look like much of the same
Conditions abroad
Will continue to wane.
Inflation will be muted
Unemployment will fall
Bank Rate will be stable
Shares are anyone’s call
The public finances
Will continue to heal
Pay growth might prove fleeting
But growth will be real.