Slight fall in Ulster Fry Index but still second highest on record
Richard Ramsey, Chief Economist at Ulster Bank has presented his annual Ulster Bank Ulster Fry Index at an event hosted by Ulster Bank today, ahead of its principal sponsorship of this year’s Balmoral Show which returns to Balmoral Park in around 4 weeks’ time. The Ulster Fry Index indicates that the average price of all ingredients making up the traditional cooked breakfast plate decreased slightly in the 12 months to the end of February, following last year’s record rise.
Tea saw the biggest price increase in the index with a rise of 6% throughout the previous 12 months, however this was slightly offset for brew lovers with a 7.1% fall in milk prices. Rises were also recorded in pork sausages (2.5%) eggs (3.2%) and sliced loaf (1.4%)
Other items which have come down slightly in price since last year’s Index was released include bacon (-2.8%) butter (-7.6%) and coffee (-1%).
Overall, the Ulster Fry Index sits at just 0.9% lower than the 2023 figure which saw the highest increase recorded since Ulster Bank began tracking the index in 2007. The previous highest rise came in 2009, just after another recession and cost of living crisis.
The price change in the various breakfast items in the Ulster Bank Ulster Fry Index in the past year are contained within the accompanying infographic.
Richard Ramsey says that while food inflation has eased slightly, it is still causing a real concern for households.
“We know that food makes up a significant proportion of household spending and is also one of our most important economic drivers in terms of the local food and drink industry. So, understanding how the price of these popular food items change offers a useful insight into the state of typical household finances and also the overall health of the agri-food industry.
“What the Ulster Fry Index is telling us is that while the price of everyday household essentials such as butter and milk have fallen, they are still a long way off their previous positions, and this is continuing to put a squeeze on consumer spending powers.
“While it may appear to be good news initially, the reality is that many of these price decreases are too small and insignificant to fully register at the checkout and it’s clear that many households are still struggling to contend with ongoing cost pressures on what would be considered as basic, everyday household items.