The resignation of UK PM Theresa May has prompted a flurry of contenders for the Tory leadership – the contest officially begins June 10th with the victor likely announced by the end of July. Boris Johnson is the bookies’ early favourite, fanning fears about a possible no-deal Brexit. The strong showing of the Brexit party in EU highlights increased fragmentation in UK politics. Meanwhile, latest UK data shows consumers continue to open their wallets.
Theresa May
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Cliff edge deferred
The EU granted PM Theresa May an extension to Brexit to May 22nd, conditional on Parliament passing the Withdrawal Agreement – a dim prospect. Another rejection would mean the Commons is given up to April 12th to propose alternatives. The indicative votes this week might offer some clues on what alternatives Parliament could support.
Weekly Brief – Crunch time 2.0
UK PM Theresa May’s meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement takes place on Tuesday and so far looks set for another defeat. If the deal is rejected, again, the votes that follow will offer Parliament the chance to go for a no-deal Brexit (almost certain to be rejected) or request an extension of Article 50 (most likely). Such pivotal events are likely to overshadow the Chancellor’s update on the Government’s finances in the Spring Statement.
Weekly Brief – May’s Brexit deal hangs by a thread
Following the recent Grieve amendment, the chances of Parliament passing PM Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow look very slim. A rejection would force Mrs May to unveil a Plan B next Monday. An array of outcomes is possible with an increasing chance of Article 50 being extended.
The rise and fall of new labour?
“The rise and fall of new labour?” may sound like a political blockbuster tracking the fortunes of one of the UK’s largest political parties. But it actually describes one of the most significant economic developments over the last decade – inward migration. Continue reading