“Global growth remains strong.” That was key judgement number one underpinning the Bank of England’s forecast in the most recent Inflation Report. The Eurozone has been at the heart of the improvement to the global economy over the past 12 months and, in turn, that’s been supportive to the UK. Can it all continue? Continue reading
housing market
Revamping the generation game
Around 10 years ago, the housing market was undoubtedly Northern Ireland’s big economic story. Today, it is much further from the headlines but beneath the surface there has been a very significant economic tale unfolding.
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Chart of the Month – Northern Ireland Home Ownership by Age
10 years ago Northern Ireland’s housing boom was turning to bust. Back then the focus was on residential property price falls and the collapse in house building. Another less closely watched indicator, rates of home ownership, also plummeted. This trend was accompanied by a corresponding boom in the private rented sector which has more than doubled between 2006-2016.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – We’ve rarely had it so good
It’s perhaps tempting fate to say that we’ve never had it so good when it comes to the performance of the job market but things certainly haven’t been so strong for decades. Continue reading
Three-in-a-row: NI notches up its 3rd year of house price growth
This year will mark the tenth anniversary of Northern Ireland’s house price peak which heralded the start of a sustained period of collateral damage for the wider economy and not just the housing market. Residential property prices peaked in Q3 2007 and subsequently troughed in Q1 2013, down a whopping 57% some 5½ years later. Since then the housing market has been in recovery mode with three successive years of house price growth. For many homeowners the last ten years has represented a lost decade with aspirations blighted by negative equity. However, the combination of house price growth and time (assuming repayments) has seen the incidence of negative equity recede.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Hail to the Chief!
After 19 months of campaigning at a cost of $2.7 billion the United States has elected its new leader. There’s a tendency to endow political events with too much significance but President-Elect Trump’s approach to some elements of economic policy represent a clear break with the past. What should we expect?
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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Moderation needed
Recent data suggest two things. First, the UK’s impressive pre-vote 0.6% Q2 growth may be trimmed a touch. Second, that consumer spending post-vote should prove stronger than first feared. A little moderation cuts both ways. Continue reading
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Next time, I promise.
The Bank of England surprised last week by not cutting interest rates. The accompanying statement showed that most members expect to loosen monetary policy at August’s meeting. But given that expectation it left a perculiar question in its aftermath. If then, why not now? Continue reading
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief -Reverse order
For years we have been used to the US economy growing faster than that of the UK and the UK growing faster than the Eurozone. But this year started with things in reverse. All three economies grew, but not by enough to change any central banker’s plans.
Housing market recovery still a long way to go
Overall the latest CML figures show signs of improvement within the local mortgage market. However, the recovery still has a long way to go within certain segments of the market.