house price index

Residential property prices hit a 13-year high

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The latest NI housing statistics, transactions, starts and completions for Q3 2021 were released this morning by NISRA.

Property prices, transactions and starts all rose year-on-year in Q3 2021. However, there was a modest year-on-year decline in housing completions (refers to house building not sales).

Estate agents and house builders have experienced a ‘V-shaped’ recovery. But, given the headwinds stemming from a shortage of housing stock, supply chain disruption and significant inflation with building materials, 2021 could well mark a peak in both transactions and house building activity. In 2022, residential property prices may be the only key housing market metric to still be on the rise.

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Housing market slowdown underway?

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One direction. Northern Ireland’s house price recovery is six-years old. For twenty-three of the last twenty-five quarters residential property prices have gone one way – up! Despite this significant run of steady price rises, less than one-third of the 57% drop in prices that occurred between Q3 2007 and Q1 2013 has been recouped so far.  As of Q2 2019, local house prices were still 39% below Q3 2007’s ‘freak peak’.

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Policy initiatives to be served up as housing market becomes political hot potato

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A graph charting instances of house prices being discussed at dinner parties across Northern Ireland would show a very large spike around 2007 followed by a deep trough in the years after the boom rediscovered gravity. Indeed, the subject became almost taboo as the downturn unfolded.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – On borrowed time

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Two deficits of two very different kinds hit the headlines over the last two weeks, the budget deficit and the current account deficit. The former is shrinking slower than was planned, the latter is widening. Together they imply that the UK is increasingly reliant on foreigners to fund our standard of living. Maintaining the outside world’s confidence is therefore crucial for the stability of the UK economy.  Continue reading →