Lockdowns prompted a pause in the labour market with Rishi Sunak rolling out the safety net that was the Job Retention Scheme (JRS). With the play button then hit as many sectors went back to work. In more recent times, we’ve seen a fast forward in the labour market figures, with the number of payrolls rising for nine consecutive months and hitting a record high for the third month running in August. We may well see this trend continue in September. But with the furlough scheme ending in a couple of weeks, we know it isn’t going to be a straight-line recovery from there. The Jobs Retention Scheme has flattered the jobs figures. But we’re now moving to a new stage of the recovery, a stage where stimulus is being turned off, inflationary headwinds are intensifying and the increased burden of tax rises is due to be felt from April 2022. We may well therefore see something of a rewind in the jobs data in the next few months as the labour market adapts to the post-furlough world. Don’t be surprised if we see payrolls fall back below pre-pandemic levels before the year is out. Getting back to pre-pandemic levels of self-employment and hours worked will take quite some time.
So, what is the latest batch of labour market statistics from NISRA telling us?Continue reading