The UK job market is going like a train, setting records at almost every turn. But wage growth is slipping
and prices are now rising faster than pay. For consumers, the squeeze is on and there’s more to come. Continue reading
Mixed Messages as NI’s recovery looks laboured?
Today we received the last set of labour market statistics ahead of next month’s General Election. Theresa May will be pleased at the headlines with a number of record highs and lows. Continue reading
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation: consumer, producer and house prices
Anoraks had no shortage of inflation data to get their teeth into today. There was the usual raft of monthly consumer price and producer price indices (e.g. RPI, CPI, PPI), plus the latest house price inflation figures for both the UK and Northern Ireland (Q1 2017). Continue reading
Global output growth just shy of January’s 13-month high
The latest PMI highlights many noteworthy trends on the local, national and global economy from April 2017. This slide pack explores them in more detail. Continue reading
Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Rebalancing?
Inflation continues to rise above the 2% target but the Bank of England sees no need to raise rates (yet). That’s the way things will remain for some time, just as long as expectations of future inflation don’t take off, pay growth remains muted and investment and export demand pick up the baton of growth from the consumer. Continue reading
Sharpest rise in output so far in 2017
Today sees the release of April data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by Markit – signalled the strongest rise in business activity of the year-to-date, while new orders continued to increase solidly and companies were optimistic of further output growth over the coming year. Meanwhile, the rate of job creation accelerated. On the price front, both input costs and output charges continued to rise sharply. Continue reading
Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Euro Vision
For years now it has been a struggle to find anything positive to write about the Eurozone economy. Plagued by slow growth, high unemployment and intermittent sovereign debt crises it has been the developed world’s economic problem child. It’s too early yet to declare victory in the war against poor economic performance but there are signs that the region is staging a sustained, if modest recovery. Continue reading
Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Pesky
Not for the first time, it appears inflation is making a bit of nuisance of itself. There was more evidence last week that the consumer is feeling the squeeze and its having a knock-on effect for growth.
Slower, part 1. The UK economy grew by 0.3% in Q1, down from 0.7% in Q4 2016. Weaker growth was caused mainly by a fall of 0.5% in the output of the retail and accommodation services sectors. If there’s such a thing as a good slowdown this was it. Higher inflation is squeezing incomes leaving people with a choice: run down their savings and borrow so as to sustain consumption or tighten their belts. These numbers suggest we’ve done the latter. Continue reading
Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Belt tightening
UK retail sales fell in the first three months of the year, the first quarterly fall since 2013. With rising prices squeezing their incomes, it looks as if consumers have decided to tighten their belts. Continue reading
NI economy’s annus mirabilis or horribilis?
About 25 years ago, The Queen popularised the term annus horribilis. At the other end of the spectrum, the term annus mirabilis translates to ‘wonderful year’ or ‘year of miracles’. 2016 was a year to which you could perhaps attach either moniker, depending on what perspective you take. And some might argue that it was actually somewhere in between. Continue reading
