Sharpest rise in output so far in 2017

Today sees the release of April data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by Markit – signalled the strongest rise in business activity of the year-to-date, while new orders continued to increase solidly and companies were optimistic of further output growth over the coming year. Meanwhile, the rate of job creation accelerated. On the price front, both input costs and output charges continued to rise sharply. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Euro Vision

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For years now it has been a struggle to find anything positive to write about the Eurozone economy. Plagued by slow growth, high unemployment and intermittent sovereign debt crises it has been the developed world’s economic problem child. It’s too early yet to declare victory in the war against poor economic performance but there are signs that the region is staging a sustained, if modest recovery. Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Pesky

London 2.jpgNot for the first time, it appears inflation is making a bit of nuisance of itself. There was more evidence last week that the consumer is feeling the squeeze and its having a knock-on effect for growth.

Slower, part 1. The UK economy grew by 0.3% in Q1, down from 0.7% in Q4 2016. Weaker growth was caused mainly by a fall of 0.5% in the output of the retail and accommodation services sectors. If there’s such a thing as a good slowdown this was it. Higher inflation is squeezing incomes leaving people with a choice: run down their savings and borrow so as to sustain consumption or tighten their belts. These numbers suggest we’ve done the latter. Continue reading