Smile. Unemployment is 4% in the UK. Last seen when Derby County won the league, Harold Wilson was PM and ‘Make me smile (come up and see me)’ topped the charts. We’re practically German (3.4%). Employment rose 42k in Q2, full time jobs up 105k (so a fall in part time). True, the money’s not great. Average pay growth slipped to 2.4%y/y in June, barely above the preferred measure of inflation (2.3%). We’re treading water. Otherwise, it’s hard to fault the figures. Jobs are more secure and ¾ of the increase in jobs are high skilled. Many may be on holiday. But the labour market certainly isn’t.
The £8-pint: too much froth in the economy?
Last month saw the opening of the latest landmark hotel in Belfast, a significant milestone for our hospitality and tourism sectors. But the fact that the cost of a pint in its penthouse bar has attracted as much attention as its rooms and restaurants, perhaps gives us some insight into the current performance of the Northern Ireland economy.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Lacklustre
UK growth rebounded in Q2, but outlook is clouded
July PMI – Fastest rise in output since January
Today sees the release of July data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to marked increases in both output and new orders amid an unusually long spell of warm weather. That said, employment increased only slightly and business confidence eased. The rate of input cost inflation remained sharp, leading output prices to rise at a pace only slightly weaker than June’s ten-year high.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Onward and upward
The MPC voted unanimously to raise interest rates and the Fed looks like it is warming up for more of the same
Much ado about nothing?
Today’s hike in interest rates is certainly important, symbolically at least, with Bank rate moving above the emergency level introduced straight after the financial crisis for the first time.
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Signs
The economic data is hinting at an impact from trade tensions. But it’s very modest, so far at least
Third sector leaders call for alternative decision-making in absence of executive
Third sector leaders expect Northern Ireland to become more politically unstable over the next 12 months and believe action is needed to ensure decisions can be made in the absence of an Executive, a new report reveals.
IT sector tops NI jobs vacancies
The latest NIJobs.com Jobs Report with Ulster Bank was published this week. It shows that the jobs market remains busy, driven by continued inward investment as well as recritment in other areas. Continue reading
Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Stuck in orbit
The labour market continues to strengthen but wage growth refuses to escape its sluggish trajectory
Continue reading