Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Exit strategies

The lockdown exit roadmap has been set, cautiously but (hopefully) irreversibly. And come March 3, the Chancellor will table the Budget, outlining the future of the government support schemes which have been so effective in preventing a wider economic fallout. But charting a course out from the extraordinary levels of government spending will be challenging. While markets have awoken to such spending levels igniting inflation down the road.

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Waiting and Watching

The oft-repeated light at the end of the tunnel may just be glowing a little brighter. Falling infection rates coupled with the timely vaccine rollout, the impressive housing market bounceback and an optimistic forecast set by the Bank of England are all stock for the refreshment station of this long marathon. But this is not the only race we are running. A timely reminder last week came on the miles ahead to protect the natural world.  

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Jab and go (hopefully)

There’s no doubt the lockdown has taken a significant toll on the UK economy.  Add to that Brexit effects are showing up in the form of higher costs and disruptions at the border. But the pace of vaccination remains very impressive, and with it confidence builds of a strong recovery. An outlook echoed by the IMF this past week.

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Feeling the chill

The going was expected to get tough. Whether it is the newly released transactions data or the familiar PMI prints, indications are the UK economy’s Covid recovery has gone into reverse. But we could recover “at a rate of knots” from the second quarter, as per the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, with the roll out of the vaccine. Fingers crossed!

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Patience

It’s going to be some more time before we can wake the UK economy from its economic slumber. Last week, virus-led restrictions tightened in Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland. And there are ominous signs of further weakening activity in January. That said, the November GDP print has strengthened hopes of lesser-than-expected damage in Q1 2021.

Continue reading

Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – ‘Exhausted’ but ‘hopeful’

This week’s title draws on the most popular words being used to describe 2020 and 2021 according to a recent survey. Well barring the expletives! The fight against the virus has left the world worn out but this has not prevented households and businesses from hoping for a better future, even when new challenges continue to arise. So it’s a hopeful note that we end our year on.

Continue reading