Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Light at the end of the tunnel

It’s less than the first but there’s no masking the impact the second lockdown had on the UK economy. It sent more workers back to furlough, car sales plunging, job postings stalling and footfall dipping. But an earlier than expected arrival of a vaccine could help galvanise the recovery not too far into the New Year, well hopefully!  

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Getting Frosty

PMI survey readings for November unsurprisingly indicated a setback in the recovery. The silver lining is that it’s a lot less compared to the first lockdown. It’s the challenge beyond implied by a stricter tiering system that’s the new concern. A difficult winter no doubt. The recovery will only get down to business when a vaccine is rolled out.  

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Testing times

The incoming data for October shows what was widely expected, a slowdown in momentum. Mobility indicators have retreated as much of the world has reverted to some combination of reimposed restrictions. At least there are hopeful signs across countries of the latest wave having peaked or indeed being in retreat, but it is still early days.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Brief – Lock-tober Fest!

Customarily a month renowned for beer festivals, October is shaping up to be quite the opposite this year with restrictions around the hospitality sector to varying degrees across the UK. Indeed, time has been called across the pubs in Scotland’s central belt.  Daily Covid-19 cases continue to surge across much of Europe, snuffing out any glimmer of hope for a V-shaped recovery. The ball is in the policymakers’ court, yet again.

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