Activity continues to rise sharply, but inflationary pressures mount

Today sees the release of March data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by S&P Global – signalled further marked increases in output and new orders, although growth rates eased from February. Meanwhile, near-record increases in input costs and output prices were recorded, with the impact of stronger inflation leading to a sharp drop in confidence.

The NI private sector continued to show signs of growth in output, employment and order books in March, but there is no disguising the impact that the Ukraine / Russian conflict has had on business conditions. This has manifested itself in three key areas – escalating inflation, a slowdown in incoming business, and a significant dent to business confidence.

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Sharpest rise in new orders in over seven-and-a-half years

Today sees the release of February data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to improved growth momentum, with both new orders and business activity up sharply. Firms were only able to raise employment modestly, however, amid reports of difficulties sourcing staff. Meanwhile, rates of inflation remained elevated but showed further signs of easing.

With concerns over Covid-19 fading fast, NI’s private sector posted a surge in activity in February. Output hit an eight-month high, with all four sectors recording growth for the first time since June last year. Meanwhile, new orders rose at their fastest pace in seven-and-a-half years. Only construction, of the four sectors monitored, failed to record an uplift in new orders last month.

Despite robust demand, employment growth slowed to a 12-month low, with NI posting the slowest rate of job creation of the 12 UK regions. Clearly firms are struggling with skills shortages and are finding it difficult to get suitable candidates to help meet the demand.

Manufacturing was the best performer at a sector level by a significant margin. Output and orders in the sector expanded at record rates while manufacturing firms continued to increase their headcounts to cope with burgeoning order books and mounting backlogs.

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New orders rise for first time in five months

Today sees the release of January data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled a positive start to 2022, with new orders returning to growth and output rising at an accelerated rate. That said, there were some signs of job creation easing and inflationary pressures remained pronounced.

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Output growth slows to nine-month low

Today sees the release of December data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that a reduction in consumer confidence amid the emergence of the Omicron variant led to a further decline in new orders, while growth of business activity was only fractional. Inflationary pressures remained elevated. On a more positive note, a further solid rise in employment was recorded and firms were optimistic regarding the outlook for output in 2022.

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Growth of activity quickens, but selling price inflation hits new record

Today sees the release of November data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – pointed to a pick-up in business activity amid signs of stabilisation in new orders and ongoing employment growth. That said, supply-chain problems continued to impact operations and inflationary pressures remained acute. In fact, output prices increased at the fastest pace on record.

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Surging price rises lead to fall in new orders

Today sees the release of October data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled that surging price rises acted as a brake on the Northern Ireland private sector, restricting growth of business activity and contributing to a decrease in new orders. Both input costs and output prices rose at new record rates. On a more positive note, companies expanded their staffing levels at a sharp and accelerated pace.

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New orders decline for first time in six months

Today sees the release of September data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – indicated that companies in Northern Ireland continued to expand their business activity, despite a first reduction in new orders for six months. Meanwhile, both input costs and selling prices increased at the sharpest rates on record.

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Output growth softens to five-month low

Today sees the release of August data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – showed signs of growth in the Northern Ireland private sector losing momentum, with both output and new orders rising at softer rates. Solid job creation continued, however. Meanwhile, near record increases in input costs and output prices were recorded.

Most of the UK regions saw business activity grow at a slower rate in August, and Northern Ireland was no exception.  Last month marked local firms’ slowest rates of growth in output, orders and employment in five months.  But a two-speed recovery was on show in August at a sector level. 

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