Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – A bumpy ride

The UK economy proved its resilience yet again. June GDP figure surprised on the upside despite disruptions caused by the third wave. Granted, there’s still some way to track back and July looks to have been more of a struggle. But the UK is well placed to chase down the pre-Covid level of economic output in the coming months.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – hawkish undertone

Last week, the Bank of England decided to shake things up a little. While monetary policy was left unchanged in August, the meeting was significant as the Bank made notable changes to its outlook for both inflation and the labour market. The ‘Old Lady’ also gave new guidance on how it plans to wind down its largest ever QE programme.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – When the going gets tough

Tis the season of Q2 growth figures. China’s growth picked up, albeit with signs of sluggishness. The US surpassed its pre-pandemic levels despite growth falling short of market expectations. The Euro area embarked on its road to recovery but below its pre-pandemic levels. So all eyes on UK GDP next week, amid signs of greater consumer caution plus a ‘pingdemic’ led slowdown in June.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – 3 vs 2 to the doves

The recent jump in inflation and pockets of tight labour market conditions prompted two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to indicate an earlier than anticipated tightening of policy. But with signs of softer activity three MPC members took a more ‘dovish’ stance. Looks like the Bank won’t break ranks with the Fed & ECB just yet.  

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The Great Resignation … why firms are seeing such a high staff turnover

2020 was a profound year for the economy at a global, national and local level. 2021 is also set to be an unusual year for the recruitment market too. Rather than the expected mass redundancies, economies around the world are seeing record numbers of vacancies. What is clear is that the pandemic hasn’t had the impact on the labour market that was expected. Talk of double-digit unemployment has been wide of the mark.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Freedom Day (caveated)

Freedom Day in England –  a much awaited milestone. Consumer behaviour, rather than restrictions, is in the driving seat now when it comes to gauging the recovery. But with daily cases surpassing January levels and a “ping-demic”, spending appetite might just be a little dented in the near-term. For now, the data continues to look robust. 

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Strongest growth of new orders for almost seven years

Today sees the release of June data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by IHS Markit – signalled further strong increases in output and new orders as the loosening of COVID-19 restrictions continued. Inflationary pressures intensified further, however, with input costs and output prices both rising at the fastest rates on record.

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Chief Economist’s Weekly Briefing – Cautious

While the data on economic activity continue to look positive, the overall mood is that of cautious optimism. Cases are on the rise in various parts of the world. In the UK the wall of vaccines is so far proving effective against a rapidly building third wave.

Yellow transportation sign post with caution word on blue sky with cloud background and have copy space
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