Next financial crisis?

Since the 1970s, there have been 217 currency crises, 147 banking crises, and 67 debt crises. These have included crises in the Far East, in Europe, in the US, South America and elsewhere.

One country that has never experienced a financial crisis though is China.

But could that be about to change?

This was the subject of a presentation that I delivered to students of the International MBA Programme at Queen’s University Belfast. You can view my slides above.

The sobering news is that the world is more exposed to developments in China than ever before. Indeed, China is the biggest manufacturer and exporter on earth.

The slowing Chinese economy is therefore pulling other economies down with it.

Economies exposed to commodities and Chinese trade are particularly vulnerable. This includes Northern Ireland companies (and there are quite a few) who manufacture equipment for the quarrying and mining industries.

The bigger concern, though, is not the economic slowdown in China, but the risk of a financial crisis. Indeed, no country that has witnessed the expansion in credit that China has seen has avoided a financial crisis.

China has plenty of firepower to deal with a crisis but policy response will be critical.

Leave a Reply